In this very interesting analysis, Col. Athale now talks about the scenarios that can unfold pretty soon given the tense situation in Pakistan. With Musharraf in jeopardy, Osama still at large, and religionists still pushing… chips could fall in any direction! So, the scenarios can include total anarchy to terrorist attacks by jehadis in India to a low intensity Nuke attack by a rogue Pak battalion. Which of these several scenarios unfolds is dependent on two things:
- What is the mood in Punjab?
- What is Musharraf’s popularity amongst the soldiers?
What I found interesting was that India is the only major country still allowing Pakistanis to enter! Most countries have either banned their entry or make it so difficult and humiliating that it is probably not worth it! In fact Saudi Arabia does not even allow the Pakistanis to go for Haj if they are below a certain age!
Even the fraternal Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan’s all weather friend China have fenced their borders with Pakistan. Worldwide, Pakistani citizens (including those of Pakistani origin) are subjected to extraordinary travel curbs and checks. Even the guardian of Islam, Saudi Arabia, had banned Pakistani citizens below 35 years of age from attending the Haj pilgrimage.
The peace efforts, like Athale says, are good if they are met from the Pak side with a strong civil back-ground… but there is no hope until the Army rules there. And I think that is where the Americans are making a mistake. I dount they got it right with Musharraf and I doubt they get it even now!!
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