Pakistan is in a turmoil. Whether you know it or not.. realize it or not. It is. The options aren’t great at all. Currently Musharraf has succeeded in alienating the same folks who raved about him through thorough mismanagament. Now, slowly but steadily (and to the discomfort of the US) Taliban is back and Al Qaeda is strong… so Pakistani army really has done nothing to help in that area!
Moreover, Mushy may be overthrown by religious zealots – something that Lal Masjid episode amply showed! So, there is pressure on him to bring back "Democracy" in a hurry.. something that Mushy never wanted! Hmm look at the scenario:
- Mushy doesn’t want it – but two arch-rivals battle it out for power. Either Sharif wins or Bhutto wins.
- Mushy remains the Army Chief – still committed (inherently albeit) to jehad.
- If Sharif comes – he has a score to settle with Mushy. So, he tries to institutionalize divide and rule in the Army.
- There is revolt – or uneasy calm – within the Army and the religious zealots want to rule it against the "secular" moles of Sharif.
- The religious zealots in the Army feel the only way out is to take control of Nukes.
- Nukes gone. India / Iran / Russia attacked.
What I have recounted is not an outlandish scenario – but a VERY likely scenario. The problem is that Sharif and Bhutto cannot like each other. Sharif and Mushy cannot like each other. Bhutto and Mushy cannot like each other. It is HIGHLY unlikely – if not impossible – that they will co-exist.
Once again, Bush and the US Administration will force something on a country without realizing the ramifications. Pakistan IS the epicenter of world terrorism. We, in India, have been crying hoarse since long.. and common Americans either do not know it or are just oblivious. Hence, they act like neurotics – while the enemy is on the left.. they are happy if the Government keeps swishing the sword on the right!!
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