ChinaEconomics

Chinese economy: Is it going to crash?

I have been saying that Chinese market does not seem to inspire a lot of confidence in me. But now, Mr Buffett backs up my claim, albeit on price concerns. I think it is robustness of the market that worries me!

Billionaire Warren Buffett said investors should be “cautious” about China’s stocks after the country’s benchmark index more than doubled this year.

“We never buy stocks when we see prices soaring,” Buffett told reporters today in Dalian, northeastern China, where he’s visiting a subsidiary of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. “We buy stocks because we’re confident of the company’s growth. People should be cautious when they see prices rising.”

Here is another article where Plender analyzes earlier similarities in economy and how this may affect China and result in a crash:

One consequence is a huge accumulation of Asian official reserves in dollar assets. Note, too, that much of the toxic financial innovation in US credit markets was helping facilitate the frenetic recycling task necessitated by global imbalances. Meantime, maintaining an artificially low value for the renminbi creates excess liquidity in China. This affects equity markets and the resulting boom is exacerbated because the real return on domestic bank deposits is negative.

In the absence of policy change the credit squeeze could be regarded as a harbinger of a Chinese crash to come. And since China is still at an early stage of development, it may be a case of many bubbles and many crashes. The only question is whether the impact is felt globally, as in 1929, or mainly domestically, as with Japan in the 1990s. The longer policy remains inflexible, the greater the likelihood of a global backwash.

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Also read:  Four Lessons from the 1962 Chinese Invasion of India

Desh Kapoor

The panache of a writer is proven by the creative pen he uses to transform the most mundane topic into a thrilling story. Desh - the author, critic and analyst uses the power of his pen to create thought-provoking pieces from ordinary topics of discussion. He writes on myriad interesting themes. Read the articles to know more about his views and "drishtikone".

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