A friend told me about this blog of a prisoner serving life in the Texas Penitentiary (Prison) for something he had done. This guy writes stock/investment analysis that are amazingly detailed and useful. He has a lot of fans/people who follow his blog! He seems to be a smart guy who just made some drastically wrong choices in life. His modus operandi is that he sends written notes to this friend’s brother who posts his notes as blogs. Quite interesting. Here is a sample of his thoughts on the world of alternative energy:
I’m still bullish on the solar industry, which hasn’t even hit critical mass yet, but then was probably the best time to get in. So that was what I tried to do, but I erred in not buying a pure play solar firm. Energy Conversion also had it’s hand in the production of hybrid vehicle batteries, fuel cells, hydrogen canisters and memory chips. I justified my logic in my purchase of the stock by being bullish on all of their segments, but this was flawed in two respects:
1) It’s obviously much harder to be right about the future prospects of the five segments of a quasi-conglomerate than it is to be about the one segment of a pure play, and
2) Such less focused companies get lower valuations—the “conglomerate’s discount.”
I sold the last of my shares a few months ago, breaking even on a three-year fiasco. Meanwhile, had I bought any of the prominent pure plays—First Solar, Sunpower, Suntech Power—I’d have anywhere from tripled to quintupled my money.
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