An Indian Civilizational Perspective

What if Oil Reaches $200/barrel?

Here some interesting information I received from a forwarded email. Don’t know the source but it is fairly well said.

– This would push shares of oil expenditure in nominal GDP to above peak levels of 1980 for most Asian economies. And Asian growth could be cut by at least another 1.5ppts.

– Growth of economies with high energy-intensity, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Taiwan, would be affected more, while Chinese and Indian growth might be shielded by oil subsidy.

– Average inflation rate could rise by another 3.5ppts, defying the notion that supply-driven inflation could go away by itself. Rates would move up much more rapidly across the region.

– Current accounts would probably worsen in most Asian economies, posing particular challenges for India, Korea, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand, and their currencies.

– Indonesia and Malaysia already indicated imminent fuel price adjustments, while India would probably find high fuel subsidy hard to swallow given its already massive fiscal deficits.

Obviously this is from the standpoint of the Asian economies. The economies that will hugely benefit are: Middle East, Venezuela, Russia, Brazil and Scandanavian countries (specifically Norway).

Only viable and long term solution to Energy Crisis

I am convinced beyond any doubt that the future of Energy crisis and its mitgation lies less in Energy Generation and MORE in Energy Storage! The Energy Generation has only ONE long term solution and that is the Sun. It is the only source that is viable from a posterity standpoint. The only issue being that we don’t know well enough (havent mastered) the art of storing this energy once it is created and use it later.

What do you think?

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