I had said in my last post that the ramifications of this UPA vote victory will reach far and wide.
US is getting ready to hit the Taliban and the Al Qaeda who are within Pakistan. So the US has already bombed areas within that country. It is not the last time that this will happen. The prize is not the Taliban or Osama Bin Laden. The prize are Pakistan’s nukes. There were five countries who have the nukes – confirmed – outside of the current nuclear powers – Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, Israel and India. In the last few months, North Korea has been forced to roll back its program, Iran has been put on the defensive (Europe and even Russia is chipping in). Israel was never a threat to the West. That leaves – Pakistan and India. Now, both entered – or rather jumped into the Nuke club – together. So, the arguments against Pakistan’s nukes also work against India. Asking Pakistan to roll all that back or neutralize them would not be that easy. Will it?
But what if India is suddenly taken out of the equation? If India is brought within the select club of the existing Nuclear countries and Pakistan is not offered that olive branch – but promised billions which will, in any case, go into the stomachs of its generals or stashed into the Swiss banks? Then, as Pakistan is wont to do, will go for what is more for effects, specially with Musharraf and the current crop at the helm. He did so at Kargil and Sharif did so after India’s blasts. This time, however, the stakes are very high. The thing that will be neutralized will be Pakistan’s nukes. It would not be easy but it is where this all is headed.
Dr. Singh is not my favorite Prime Minister, but I will also give it to him that he is – at the end of it – a lover of the country. No matter who goes against the country, he wont. I have also seen him escorting the not so good alternatives to go for the better way out.
So, be ready for some fireworks in the neighborhood. Hopefully none of those will fall in our backyard.
Now, this analysis was purely a conjecture on my part and based on things happening around the world. It may turn out to be completely false, but to me the genesis of this deal was a bit surprising to begin with! And given that Bush and the US never does anything without a direct goal, it totally shocked me that they would do a deal on its own without India asking for it and giving India something that not many other Nuke states have? This analysis is the only reason that makes sense to me.
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