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What does Indo-US Nuclear deal mean outside of India?

I had said in my last post that the ramifications of this UPA vote victory will reach far and wide.

US is getting ready to hit the Taliban and the Al Qaeda who are within Pakistan. So the US has already bombed areas within that country. It is not the last time that this will happen. The prize is not the Taliban or Osama Bin Laden. The prize are Pakistan’s nukes. There were five countries who have the nukes – confirmed – outside of the current nuclear powers – Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, Israel and India. In the last few months, North Korea has been forced to roll back its program, Iran has been put on the defensive (Europe and even Russia is chipping in). Israel was never a threat to the West. That leaves – Pakistan and India. Now, both entered – or rather jumped into the Nuke club – together. So, the arguments against Pakistan’s nukes also work against India. Asking Pakistan to roll all that back or neutralize them would not be that easy. Will it?

But what if India is suddenly taken out of the equation? If India is brought within the select club of the existing Nuclear countries and Pakistan is not offered that olive branch – but promised billions which will, in any case, go into the stomachs of its generals or stashed into the Swiss banks? Then, as Pakistan is wont to do, will go for what is more for effects, specially with Musharraf and the current crop at the helm. He did so at Kargil and Sharif did so after India’s blasts. This time, however, the stakes are very high. The thing that will be neutralized will be Pakistan’s nukes. It would not be easy but it is where this all is headed.

Also read:  How Modi Government Has Changed the Power Sector in India

Dr. Singh is not my favorite Prime Minister, but I will also give it to him that he is – at the end of it – a lover of the country. No matter who goes against the country, he wont. I have also seen him escorting the not so good alternatives to go for the better way out.

So, be ready for some fireworks in the neighborhood. Hopefully none of those will fall in our backyard.

Now, this analysis was purely a conjecture on my part and based on things happening around the world. It may turn out to be completely false, but to me the genesis of this deal was a bit surprising to begin with! And given that Bush and the US never does anything without a direct goal, it totally shocked me that they would do a deal on its own without India asking for it and giving India something that not many other Nuke states have? This analysis is the only reason that makes sense to me.


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Desh Kapoor

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6 thoughts on “What does Indo-US Nuclear deal mean outside of India?”

  1. I think its china whom united states wants to balance india with. Nuke deal makes the regional power distribution more balanced. Further, it gives american nuclear companies a good business market.

  2. I think its china whom united states wants to balance india with. Nuke deal makes the regional power distribution more balanced. Further, it gives american nuclear companies a good business market.

  3. The deal is there whether India wants it or not. That much is true. Its ramifications on Pakistan …. then why Pakistan is silent? Pakistan could be aware of the US plays and ploys, though your analysis is very clear and close to inevitability … Let us hope Indian strategists are shrewd enough to use the US tactics to India’s advantage vis a vis Pakistan

    MS

  4. Desh, you may right by saying US has an axe to grind… Otherwise why would they be willing to go an extra mile…but let me highlight why India at this juncture has more to gain…

    one thing that works very much in India’s favor is the growth of Indian multinationals who stand to benefit as much from the deal…it is these companies who will gain from the extra power that is generated plus direct manufacturing contracts for power plants (not to forget the enormous benefits of technology transfer)…to meander a little, growth of these multinationals is good from various angles—under suitable and competitive economic conditions these Indian MNCs create wealth for the country and can also be used as mediators/negotiators in times of crisis or simply gaining global contracts…

    also, at this point India is thinking of long term benefits that it can derive from its thorium resources…though we are still a while away from the final technology kicking in, theoretically, India should be able to produce sufficient power for over a century as and when the it happens…

    Dr. Singh may not be or may not look too intimidating a politician but he’s a far sighted pragmatic intellectual…he is able to visualize 2nd and 3rd degree linkages and willing to place bets on his actions…

    Still many people question the ability to carry out nuclear tests…for one, India has sufficient nukes to blocks credible threats from any country…all its missing is delivery mechanisms-which it has been testing a regular intervals…however, in todays world what we need is economic (and cultural “soft power”)supremacy…simply having nukes don’t mean much-take the case of Pakistan-still looking at America for aid…to counter balance China we don’t need any more nukes…we need better infrastructure, more entrepreneurs and well taken care of citizens…so at this point we need to create conditions to create more scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, managers who are world class…

    Amit
    ex-Irman
    Washington DC

  5. The deal is there whether India wants it or not. That much is true. Its ramifications on Pakistan …. then why Pakistan is silent? Pakistan could be aware of the US plays and ploys, though your analysis is very clear and close to inevitability … Let us hope Indian strategists are shrewd enough to use the US tactics to India’s advantage vis a vis Pakistan

    MS

  6. Desh, you may right by saying US has an axe to grind… Otherwise why would they be willing to go an extra mile…but let me highlight why India at this juncture has more to gain…

    one thing that works very much in India’s favor is the growth of Indian multinationals who stand to benefit as much from the deal…it is these companies who will gain from the extra power that is generated plus direct manufacturing contracts for power plants (not to forget the enormous benefits of technology transfer)…to meander a little, growth of these multinationals is good from various angles—under suitable and competitive economic conditions these Indian MNCs create wealth for the country and can also be used as mediators/negotiators in times of crisis or simply gaining global contracts…

    also, at this point India is thinking of long term benefits that it can derive from its thorium resources…though we are still a while away from the final technology kicking in, theoretically, India should be able to produce sufficient power for over a century as and when the it happens…

    Dr. Singh may not be or may not look too intimidating a politician but he’s a far sighted pragmatic intellectual…he is able to visualize 2nd and 3rd degree linkages and willing to place bets on his actions…

    Still many people question the ability to carry out nuclear tests…for one, India has sufficient nukes to blocks credible threats from any country…all its missing is delivery mechanisms-which it has been testing a regular intervals…however, in todays world what we need is economic (and cultural “soft power”)supremacy…simply having nukes don’t mean much-take the case of Pakistan-still looking at America for aid…to counter balance China we don’t need any more nukes…we need better infrastructure, more entrepreneurs and well taken care of citizens…so at this point we need to create conditions to create more scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, managers who are world class…

    Amit
    ex-Irman
    Washington DC

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