Over the last few months ever since the 26/11, Pakistan has mired the thing – as I had expected – in bureacratic nonsense. From “closing down offices” of the LeT but not arresting the top guys, to now filing charges against some within the Pakistani laws but not having laws that would prevent those cases from going anywhere (prosecution for criminal acts outside of Pakistan is not possible).  So soon, the world’s proverbial 5 minutes obsession with Mumbai Attacks will have ended, and then it will be useless to bring it up as a major crisis to be dealt with. Sometimes, you need provocative mechanisms to instill Top-of-the-mind-recall! In marketing that’s what sales and advertising and promotions do.
In any case, I had been looking at the news of Pakistani reply fleetingly but it seems clear – when 10 different people are talking 10 different languages with the same administration to different audiences.. that you know that nothing will really come out of all this. It was a sham to begin with and it will remain just that. People who are honest would know who did this and if they are really honest they would also admit that there are enough groups within ISI and Pak Army who are leading this charge.
Meanwhile on more fora than one, I have seen Pakistani hot headed analysts rooting for attack on India. Somehow, they keep claiming that Pakistan is bound to defeat India. For a nation that has lost every war they fought badly where either they somehow through sheer lie were able to get a release of >90,000 PoWs and in another had to run to US to save their little prestige that was still left intact.. it is rather interesting that specially the ex-Army folks are so besotted by the idea of beating India in a war. For a bunch of losers from an Army that has had to resort to covert war because they have been such losers in a direct war thats some chutzpah! I mean if I can’t beat you and still keep looking for nooks and crannies to hit you here or there.. and keep hoping that one day you will fall .. and that will be my victory and somehow a display of my “strength” shows my desperation and loser mentality rather than valor.
Anyways, that’s what it seems many want. And despite the fact that India has suggested no interest in fighting a war, everyone and his brother in Pakistan is kind of threatening India with some unGodly consequences if it attacked! From Musharraf to the Army Chief to their President to anybody who can possibly get an audience.. has the same message. Now, an Al Qaeda top commander who was reported as dead by the Pakistani Army to the US (during one drone attacks – and I am sure gotten adequate “compensation” – read additional GDP from the US) has resurrected and threatened India as well.
The entire circus is amazing. The “peaceniks” in Pakistan are disturbed about the specter of war.. because India has been blaming Pakistan. And the extremists have been threatening. For an attack that was planned, originated, and stage-managed from that country, it seems to even point to that is a “crime” in the eyes of peaceniks! And in my assessment THAT such peaceniks are faking anger and disappointment and NOT owning up to what has occured …. HONESTLY.. makes me suspect of the peace credentials! I know many Indians who wanted peace were made to feel that way after the attacks as well. But peace cannot be faked! It needs strong and honest hearts. Hearts who can know where the mess started and happened.
Now, it is not as if the “pressure” from India has dampened the terror minds in Pakistan. As we speak, a ‘supari” (contract to kill) has been given to Chota Shakeel (aide of Dawood Ibrahim) to kill Ajmal Kasaab. Why? Well, there won’t remain any evidence to pin Pakistan down in those attacks. For a person who works for money, Dawood must be going rather out of his way to do it all gratis (for free). The question is: what was the consideration?
I have said earlier – that war with India is the only thing that can save the Islamists in Pakistan and help them take over the entire Pakistan. They have played their final cards – of provoking US and NATO openly by shutting off the approach routes to Afghanistan and also hitting at the supplies and looting them. Now, if ever there was that wafer thin veil of separation between them and the Taliban – its all gone! They are in it together. Having thrown those final cards and knowing what is in store because of that, the only way to stop US in its tracks is to bring India into the game and provoke a war.. to keep the US at bay. If India attacks, then its great.. if India doesn’t and they are able to somehow keep hitting India, then they can claim victory anyways and help fuel the megalomania of the youth that India is afterall a beatable enemy. Great recruiting tactic.
Here is my prediction for next few months:
1. There will be another attack in India. This one will be even more daring and provoking for India. It will probably happen near the elections.
2. The aim for the Islamists will be to bring back BJP as the short term manuver so when an attack happens, the Government can go ahead with a war – kind of like a situation that will be both good and bad for India (because, a winning war is always fought as per YOUR preparation and timing.. and not another’s provocation!!). Sadly, the guy who should come as the PM – Modi – to deal with these kind of minds in the hardest possible manner will not be at the helm when BJP lands in Delhi, if at all. The rest in Indian politics – from Rahul Gandhi to Laloo Yadav to Mayawati to the soft Dr. Singh – no one has either the knowledge or the patriotism or the balls to handle a war crisis with an enemy mind. Like this Government amply showed, they will dilly dally, purport to take the high road and in the end.. the violent will be a victor again at the altar of non-violence from us “peace-loving” folks!
3. Like I had predicted in my 2009 predictions, Pakistan is moving to a Taliban state. Many I have talked to in Pakistan do not believe such a thing, but it is now an even more distinct possibility.