I see a conflicting election result.. Neither Congress nor BJP will get a complete majority.. and I see a re-election happening soon after as the coming in coalition will not survive.
This is how we predicted the coming Lok Sabha Elections in our 2009 Annual predictions on Drishtikone. With Naveen Patnaik breaking off from BJP in Orissa, Trinamool breaking off with Congress and now RJD’s rift with Congress; that prediction – without the use of any astrology, but rather simple common sense and basic analytical reading of the waves in politics; I may stress here – may well come out to be PRECISE!
Congress and Laloo’s RJD have broken up. At least as far as the Lok Sabha Polls are concerned. Although Laloo seems to have kept the avenue open for the alliance going forward.
Now, one thing is interesting – why would Laloo “break off” with Congress by having his own contestants for 37/40 seats (thus basically thumbing Congress) and still talk of a UPA Government going forward? I see the following reasons:
- The regional players like RJD, LJP, Trinamool etc; realize that they are very strong in their areas. And that is their ONLY strength really. If they win in their region… they become part of the Government. The more seats they win.. the more negotiation power they have. So, if BJP and Congress expect them to toe their line.. they will have to give up this pretense of an alliance and contest on their OWN.
- There are two forces underway right now in politics – between regional and “National” parties – While the regional parties want to use their clout of the region to get more say in the National politics and THUS use that presence in National media to create a Nation-wide legitimacy.. the National Parties on the other hand, are trying their level best to remain as the viable national “Aggregator”.
Elections are basically about two options:
- EIther Congress or BJP win ON THEIR OWN;
- Or be ready for Horse Trading.
The latter case has become more of a certainty in every Lok Sabha Polll in India now. Which the regional parties see as THE most amazing vehicle to “topple” BJP and Congress as National Parties. The issue however, is that none of the regional parties have the scope or the leaders to make it possible.
The ONLY party which partly has that scope are the Communists.. with substantial presence in Bengal and Kerala. But that is about all. And this time, even there, they will see strong reversals. So the future is reserved for regional parties unless BJP and Congress step up and stop the infighting that is currently plaguing them!
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