Post election alliances and possible formations

The electoral equations may be changing a bit as Telangana Rashtriya Samiti – which fought the elections as part of the Third Front suddenly decided to join NDA. An election rally before the final phase showcased some unlikely partners on the NDA stage in Ludhiana.[1]

Besides TRS chief K Chandrashekhar Rao, those who attended a rally convened by Shiromani Akali Dal chief and Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal here, were BJP leaders L K Advani and Rajnath Singh, JD (U)’s Sharad Yadav and Nitish Kumar, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and RLD chief Ajit Singh.

The move of TRS will surely open up the post poll numbers as more constituents of Third Front may join NDA. JD(S) may also follow TRS, feel some analyst.

Although TDP, BJD and Mamata Banerjee may not feel close to BJP and may not automatically come to NDA, but then they aren’t great friends of Congress either. Specifically TDP. Naidu is a tough opponent for Congress in Andhra Pradesh.

NCP and its boss Sharad Pawar are another dark horse. Sharad Pawar is said to be close to Shiv Sena – BJP’s partner. So, if the numbers from alliances start to favor NDA, then maybe Pawar may come along and also garner in TDP and BJD. Of course, then he would also want his spoils – i.e.; the PM seat.

There is strong view forming now that if non-BJP guy – not just Pawar – becomes the PM, then TDP and some other parties may be more than willing to join in the alliance. But then, BJP is adamant on having LK Advani as the PM. Moreover, BJP may well end up winning 160+ seats. So, for it to give away all the most prized post to some party with just 20 or 30 seats doesn’t make any sense.

At least this makes one thing more probable (nothing is certain these days) – that Third Front will not form a Government. Of course, Congress may pip BJP to the post with higher seats but UPA may not be able to do as well with the partners as BJP may be.

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Strangely – slowly it is becoming meaningless to ask “Who won the elections?”. The question should now be “Who will FORM the Government?”. It seems that three things will decide the formation this time as well – as always:

  • Egos
  • Pragmatism based on Greed
  • Money

I have a feeling that this coming formation will be unstable and may collapse. So, maybe not forming a Government may be a “blessing in disguise” for the one who does not. It will surely help if and when the mid term elections happen, which is a strong possibility.

Reference Links:

1. TRS chief Chandrashekhar Rao, Nitish Kumar attend NDA rally

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