Annual and Year-end
Annual and Year-endIndiaPakistanPoliticsUS
Every year, at Drishtikone, we analyze the coming year for three nations – Indian, US, and Pakistan. In my view, for our purposes, these three nations are very important. One,…
This year, 2012, is a significant year in many ways. There are enough doomsday-sayers, who believe that 2012 will be the end of the world. World, as per the great…
For last two years, at Drishtikone, we have presented predictions for the coming years. And it is interesting to see how they have stacked up.
Last year also we made some predictions. Let us first review them a bit and then look at how the future looks like:
Pakistan: I had said that I see more turmoil in that country and suddenly Iraq will seem like a tame cousin. Well, from most accounts all over the world from major analysts – specifically after the Mumbai Attacks – that seems VERY true. The Islamists are back in the saddle there, as far as decision making and calling the shots are concerned. And more importantly Taliban has virtually over-run most of the border region and is ruling as a parallel government in Swat valley – not too far from Islamabad.
I had wondered if Musharraf’s life will be in danger.. well, he was smart as he extricated himself out of the politics in time. His time was up anyways for now.
Going foward: In the next year or two, I see complete Talibanization of Pakistan. I mean COMPLETE! War against India is imminent as it happens and I see a real danger to the Indian cities from the fanatic terrorist minds in Pakistan.
The year 2007 draws to a close. As is customary, we make many lists of the year gone by. I had also started this tradition last year by compiling my own and others’ lists. Here were my predictions for this year 2007. Let’s see how we did?
1. Dollar will decline and maybe US will avert a correction but the deficit will continue to balloon.
Little need to expand on it. This was SPOT ON and one of the main points of discussion by the end of the year!
2. The tensions due (1) above will increase with China and Europe due to trade issues. Chinese element will also include the military/political muscle flexing as well. India will therefore become an important prop this year. So expect India to become an important “flavor” in American foreign policy.
Again, this also came true to a large extent. The Toy recalls and some books came out and it was clear that there was a push with the Nuclear deal etc. to position India against the growing influence of China!
3. The true implications of Iraq invasion will start becoming all too apparent! If I were Barrack Obama I would NOT run for the President! In fact if I were the head of Democratic party I would let the Republicans take that “honor” in the next President elections. By the end of 2007, the world will realize that Iraq was THE greatest mistake of the modern times. I would be very surprised if a major conflict does not break out in that region.
Well, I am surprised! Many politicians have gone on record in the US to say that Bush’s presidency was the worst ever and Iraq is one of the worst mistakes ever! But I guess the dimensions of this mistake are not completely apparent as of now. Wait till next year.