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I have said again and again on this blog and had made the prediction of fall of Pakistan within a year or so to Taliban. There have been commenters like on this post thread (intriguingly both Indians) who have argued against it.
Three interesting reports I just read which kind of reinforce each other.
One, ISI (Pakistan Intelligence Chief) Lt Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha refused to meet US Special Representative Richard Holbrooke because Pasha was peeved at the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff having criticised the ISI.[1]
Second, an Atlantic Council Report co-authored by senators John Kerry and Chuck Hagel [2] now says:
“We are running out of time to help Pakistan change from its present course towards increasing economic and political instability and even ultimate failure.”
Pakistan basically has 6 -12 months before it totally descends into chaos.
Third, David Kilcullen, a former adviser to top US military commander General David Petraeus and a top expert on guerrilla warfare has now said that “Pakistan could collapse within six months” due to the Jehadis! [3]
We have spoken earlier as well as to how the links between Pakistan Army, ISI (at least the Jehadi masters), Taliban and Jehadis is a foregone conclusion and anybody within Pakistan who tries to come out with it is taken out – like Major General Alavi was.
The fact that ISI Chief Pasha is still peeved at “criticism” and thinks that by avoiding Holbrooke… the “Hell” wont “broke lose”.. then it shows why there IS mess in Pakistan in the first place. The only way out for Pakistan now is to self cleanse “itself”.. but the agencies and entities that have to be cleansed.. are the VERY ones who are at the position of cleaning things! So, to expect the Devil to fight himself is well nigh stupid and nonsensical.
I wish some God or Angel can descend on Pakistan to help them out of this – the way they CAN be helped… but the only way out is blocked by their egos and blind hatred.
Without sounding alarmist, anarchist, and sadist; I would say that for all practical purposes.. as far as civilized world is concerned – Pakistan should be assumed as GONE in next 6 months! At least the Pakistan that has anything “civilized” to offer. Of course, it will exist as Afghanistan existed during the Taliban rule in the 1990s and like Swat exists today.. but to assume it will have a cricket match… have music.. have science and art.. or if it can be represented as a nation where Waaris Shah, Bulleh Shah once lived or where Heer-Ranjha loved each other.. well.. that will be history.
World should at this moment – specially INDIA – should now start preparing to live with THAT kind of eventuality! In fact the infiltration attempts from Pakistan at the LoC have gone up 3 times, more militants per batch are trying to jump in, and they are armed to the hilt and are trying to engage the Indian forces at the border itself![4] The situation is achanging. And that is at the LoC. How and when all this gets translated WITHIN India is anybody’s guess. And, I am just talking conventional arms as of now. They could come armed with a “dirty bomb” as well all the way to Delhi. It is not an alarmist talk.. but a VERY GREAT POSSIBILITY!
That Pakistan will be a sea of White Shalwar Kameez-ed men and Black Burqa clad women with no other color on the horizon is not such a big concern for me right now.. at least – even in that 13th or 14th century type of atmosphere they could still live… but that more and more of the unemployed and brainwashed youth will try to target India and its progress is what concerns me most now.
Whoever comes as the leader of India after the elections.. I really hope can secure the Indian borders.. a task easier said than done.
Reference Links:
1. ISI chief refuses to meet Holbrooke, Mullen: Report
2. It’s Hell Next Door
3. Pakistan could collapse within six months: US expert
4. Alarm at LoC but it’s jihadis, not Taliban
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