When we look at any game of chess, we have to look at the end game first. Where will this move lead the opponent to.
Let us first get some of the things out of the way in this analysis – like who did it? With the involvement of Jaish, which is known as ISI’s ‘sword arm’ and the modus operandi (no “home grown” terrorist can garner 100 or 300 kgs of explosives) the hand of a major force is assured, specifically the ISI. As ISI’s new Chief Lt Gen Munir probably wanted to prove his mettle to his countrymen and his bosses, the chances are that this may have been his way to showcase his wares to them.#PulwamaTerrorAttacks were Opening game, Riots + Global War on Modi will be middle and end game played by Pak, Congress & #Breaking India forces. DECLARE NATIONAL EMERGENCY, Mr PM! @narendramodi Click To Tweet
So, if ISI managed and orchestrated the whole operation with a new thrust to the whole Kashmir terror operation (that of suicide bombing and use of vehicles laden with explosives) then the situation it is creating in India could not have been its ultimate end. To understand this, we have to look at the intention and the ‘end game’ of the player we are dealing with.
One interpretation could be that which C. Christine Fair – a Pak observer whom I respect greatly – discusses. That Jaish and ISI wanted to promote Modi in the coming elections. Why? To ensure its base is intact within Pakistan.
However, these factors do not explain the timing of the attack. I argue that it has much to do with the election. Pakistan knows that Prime Minister Modi is facing a tighter race than he did five years ago and there is little doubt that Pakistan wants to ensure another Modi victory. (Source)
However, this argument makes a very simplistic assumption. That ISI and Pak Army is a demi god which can decide its own and others’ destiny while others simply lay down and wait for them to act. This is insulting and quite simplistic if not juvenile.
The almost super-force like position of ISI may have been there while Pakistan dealt with India of the past.
But if the last 4 years have been any indication, then Pakistan’s very existence is now in danger. More importantly, Pakistani Army is strapped for cash, which has dried up from every source – remittances gone after major middle-east lay-offs, US grants non-existent, exports dwindled despite Rupee devaluation, and even Saudi help not as forthcoming.
One needs to appreciate that Pakistani Army is not just a “fighting force” for the nation (although its officers don’t fight but use terrorists and without fighting a single war, its Chief has an array of medals!) , but also the owner of most major businesses within the country – from owning steel mills to making cereals! It is an Army which is known to have what are called Military Millionaires.
Even though, the Pak Army or the ISI are not the smartest folks on this planet when it comes to economics, they have made up for that weakness by using devious tactics that have fooled/forced/made people to give them millions of dollars. And, they openly talk of “milking their strategic geographic advantage.”
It is only now that such monies are drying up. Replacing US with China as the main ally is good for discussion, but Chinese are not as idiotic as the Americans. They don’t give money. They buy you and your conscience.
And, a lot of this situation has been perpetuated by the duo of Modi and Doval. They have ensured that Pakistani economy and the whole cash structure (with falling exports and rising imports) is a complete mess. The parleys with Nawaz Sharif, the befriending of him at personal level, the pressures on the UAE and the Saudis to kick the Pak labor out, and communication blitzkrieg to isolate Pakistan has worked. And it has dried up the economy. Even the latest “investment” by Saudis to the tune of $20 billion are projects, not doles or monies. They will put the project and take out the finished good, while getting hefty subsidies! This money ($20 bn) is NOT for paying off the debt! And, the $3 bn that they have given as cash is to be parked, not spent! Even that is at over 3%!
So, Ms Fair’s characterization of this attack as Pakistan Army’s way to bring Modi doesn’t cut it for me at all! I don’t believe for a moment that Modi – even if I put any super conspiracy hat on – is beneficial for the Army. In fact, if he decimates the Congress and the opposition in the coming elections, Pakistan will lose all leverage in India.
If you look closely, the India of Modi is like the Pakistan of Zia ONLY in terms of strategic dominance in South Asia. Minus the religious bigotry. Modi, despite his critics is not a bigot and neither does he allow that to occur.
Having watched with great consternation, the ways in which Zia ul Haq danced around and made idiots out of Indian establishment (remember the “cricket diplomacy”?) while ensuring that we have wars on 2-3 fronts waged by his well-trained Jehadis, I cannot but acknowledge how strong a grip he had over India. And, with idiots like IK Gujral giving him the names of Indian spy assets in Pakistan in the name of Punjabi bhaichara, the decimation of India’s infrastructure was complete!
Modi is to Pakistan what Zia was to India of 1980s.
One who has the power, intent and the zeal to destroy Pakistan from within and without. And in Doval he has the ideal partner to help.
So, Modi’s re-election is not Pakistan Army’s dream. It is their greatest nightmare. And, they know it. Read this tweet from Gaurav Pradhan, a person whose tweets have a habit of being accurate in hindsight. When he writes, they seem cryptic and outlandish. He knows of inner happenings that many do not.
Below is my Jan 1, 2019 Ques to @RahulGandhi
I DON'T tweet fiction. If u think I dream something and tweet, UR just a kid or Idiot.
We TRACK movement
Bunty & Babbli in touch with ISI pic.twitter.com/TLIFH1pbhP
— #GauravPradhan 🇮🇳 (@DrGPradhan) February 17, 2019
Here, Bunty and Babli mean – the two main campaigners from Congress.
If, therefore, Modi love is not what is driving Pakistan Army, and it is in cohorts with the Congress establishment (Aiyar home meeting, Sidhu drama and Rahul Gandhi’s parleys with ISI); then Pulwama has massively backfired! In fact, even if Modi does 20% of what he wants, he will still win. Everyone knows who will save India if this is the Pakistan they face.