Saturday, March 23, 2019

Pulwama CopyCat Attack in Iran and the Very Complex Geopolitical Situation Developing for India

There is a Sunni terror-group in Pakistan called Jaish ul-Adl (translated as Army of Justice).  It operates on the Iranian border with Pakistan.  It is supported and backed by Pakistan (and also funded by Saudi Arabia) and operates mainly in south-eastern province of Sistan and Baluchistan of Iran and has base in Pakistan. (Guardian / Reuters)

Pulwama CopyCat Attack in Iran and the Very Complex Geopolitical Situation Developing for India #PulwamaAttack @narendramodi Click To Tweet

Apart from its fight against Iran, Jaish ul-Adl is also important for Indians because it was this organization that kidnapped Kulbhushan Yadav from Chahbahar and handed him over to the Pakistanis.

Jadhav was kidnapped by Mullah Omar Irani of Jaish-ul-Adl from Sarbaz city, around 52km from Chabahar. Irani then handed over Jadhav to the Pakistan Army.

This terror organization was earlier called Jundallah.  Iran had captured and executed its leader Abdolmalek Rigi in 2010.  But the organization changed its name to Jaish ul-Adl in 2012 and started again.

Jaish ul-Adl is a designated terrorist organization per Iran, India and Japan.

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Now comes the shocking news – specifically for Indians – that on February 13, 2019 just a day before the Pulwama attack, Jaish ul-Adl did a copy-cat attack on the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.  A truck laden with explosives targeted a bus carrying the guards.

The state-run IRNA news agency said the attack took place in Sistan and Baluchistan province, which has a large, mainly Sunni, ethnic Baluchi community which straddles the border with Pakistan.

The Revolutionary Guards said in a statement that a vehicle loaded with explosives had targeted a bus carrying affiliated border guards.

The Fars news agency said the attack was claimed by Jaish al-Adl, a jihadist group formed in 2012 as a successor to the Sunni extremist group Jundallah, which had waged a deadly insurgency against Iranian targets.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are elite and deadliest branch of the Iranian armed forces.  They were traveling on a 100-mile mountainous route from the city of Khash to the provincial capital of Zahedan.

27 Iranian guards have died and 20 are critically injured.

And, this happened on a day when US is co-hosting a conference in Warsaw where Iran and its situation will be discussed with respect to its role in Middle East.  In other words, Iran will be in a dock.

The U.S. is co-hosting the gathering called the Ministerial to Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East. But the focus is expected to be on Iran and what Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has referred to as countering its “malign influence.” (source)

So, on this day and 2 days before the Saudi Crown Prince MBS is to arrive in Pakistan, Pakistan has stuck a master blow to further make the Saudis indebted to Pakistan.  They know that Iran is being hauled up in Warsaw by US, and Saudis are anyway trying to hit at Iran.  This was the ideal time that they could have hit Iran to earn some extra brownie points with the Saudis.

Pakistan piggy-backing on Saudis-suck-up attack in Iran

What, however, Pakistan also did – along with trying to suck up to Saudis by hitting Iran – is to use this opportunity to hit India.  And, for Pakistan India is at the center of its whole situation.  If Narendra Modi remains as India’s PM in 2019 elections, it will be the end of Pakistan as we know it.

And, after having coopted the Congress leadership – first at Mani Shankar Aiyar’s home, and then via the visit by Navjot Singh Siddhu, and also direct meetings between Rahul Gandhi and the ISI representatives and chief (check the tweets below) – the Pakistanis have the right foil in India to start beating Modi up as soon as he is caught in the quagmire of geo-politics which goes beyond India and Pakistan.