In 58 posts with close to 100k words, we shared a lot in 2024! Explore 2024’s biggest geopolitical shifts, cultural battles, and bold insights with Drishtikone’s year in review. See you in 2025! Happy New Year! Be safe!
When you see Russia get into existential war over Ukraine, or Israel bomb Syria or India battle with Pakistan or Bangladesh, it is not because of some whim. It has a historical and geographical context. That is critical to understand for analyzing geopolitics.
For anyone who was observing, which apparently is a very rare thing these days, it was bound to happen. Here is a guy who gets worked up about every little thing. He has learnt no restraint and no diplomacy to handle people. Heck, when you look at every human being as an “enemy” to either make a deal with or beat up, then how do you even begin to get the quality of restraint.
And it is this lack of restraint which became the hallmark of his campaign. He could say whatever he wanted, accentuating the worst fears of the most bigoted of this country and become their hero. The others were “politically correct” and he was not. Un-PC-ways were his ticket to the Presidency.
But the Presidency of US ain’t a party nomination race! Vladimir Putin is no Marco Rubin and Xi Jinping is no Jeb Bush. He may play with Jeb or Marco all he wants, but Putin and Jinping can literally toy with him with their sophisticated ways and intelligence to back up.
Let us look at some reasons why Trump will be a danger to the US and the World.
1
Politics of Personal Insults and Not Issues: Through-out the Republican primaries, Donald Trump had been nick-naming his opponents and going after them personally. He has done just that even in the battle with Hillary (and Obama as well). Just by repeating cliched stuff that everyone wants to hear in terms of high-level “policies” along with a juvenile and personally abusive campaign, Trump has done the greatest damage to the political future of the US. His spectacular success with these two strategy components means that enough advantage can be taken of these ways by others as well. Even in local elections going forward! It doesn’t matter how qualified or bad Marco Rubio is, but to bully him reminiscent of High School bullying tactics shows the level of maturity in Trump. DIsagreeing with someone is one thing, but getting personal is quite another. And this is where it went when we saw the “war on wives” between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. It was the worst that politics can see in any society.
2
Takes the Bait and becomes “nuts”!: As it turns out Mr. Khizr Khan is a Clinton beneficiary other than being a Gold Star Dad. He is to be respected for how he has raised a patriotic son who sacrificed his life. That pride shows in Mr. Khan’s eyes that only a Dad can have. He is indeed admirable! On that night at the Democratic convention, what he said about Trump was a factor of many things. His patriotism, his pride as a Gold Star Dad and also being a supporter of Hillary Clinton as well as being a Muslim. All these factors found their resonance in his speech. It was a very effective speech. What mattered about him as a speaker was the fact that he was a Gold Star Dad and not that he was a Supporter or a Muslim. Heck, after all, all who speak at either of the conventions are the candidates supporters, aren’t they? And all represent a certain part of society, whether you agree with that group or not. So just as Jason Collins represented gays at that convention and echoed their “story”, Mr. Khan represented Muslims in his own way. We can agree or disagree whether Collins or Mr. Khan actually represent their constituency properly and correctly, but we cannot take away the fact that this is how the game of symbolism works in politics. No one is a representative and everyone is.
What however one found strange was the bait that Trump took with regards to Mr. Khan’s speech and started a fight that should have never started. Mr. Khan did what was needed of him, given his own history and political comfort. That is common to everyone. But what Trump did by taking him on and biting the bait was to show that he can easily be gamed. Anyone with a sophisticated understanding of human emotions and behavior and with an agenda (worse if it is sinister!) can game Trump to do anything that can very well (and will be!) against the very interest and security of the US.
3
Downright Geo-Politically Imbecile Stands: Treaties like NATO and protection of Japan were not done for just the benefit of Europe or Japan. It was done for emphasizing, establishing, enforcing and continuing the hegemony of the US around the world as the greatest Super-power. Yes, you lose some money – in a way you are buying some of that status – but it comes with huge benefits. One being your word is THE word in the world politics. When US attacked Iraq, even when it was telling a lie, as many knew it was – many countries still went ahead along with the US. Yes, that was a rather stupid war, but the power of the US word was established. That is how US keeps the powers like Russia and China at bay. One may want to come out of those treaties but that also means that Americans will be standing in the line with the Chinese and others and be judged and evaluated just as others are done. And, wait for the day when Germany – without the benefit of NATO – builds its own military power AGAIN! All those who currently benefit from the US are the ones who when left on their own, can build a military might that can very easily rival the US. One wrong establishment rule in those countries and we will be staring at something far worse than World War II. Besides the hegemony of US can go for a toss.
Here is where Trump’s stand becomes dangerous. Even if Trump was never to pull out of NATO or the treaty with Japan because of establishment drilling sense into him after becoming a President. The simple reason that he has an intent to do so and leave those forces – Europeans and Japanese – “high and dry” will be enough for them to overtly and covertly start rebuilding their military might. Right now US and its allies in NATO and Asia know where both stand. But when the “Hunger Games” begin, the very uncertainty of each other’s stance will be enough to create an atmosphere of debilitating controversies and secret maneuvers. That will make Cold War seem like the “Good Ol’ Days”!!
4
Destroying Traditions and Unwritten Rules: One major reason why suddenly President Obama and the Secret Services establishment has suddenly come out to say that Trump will be a “Dangerous” man in the Oval Room is because he may already BE sharing / commenting on / baring things that are at the heart of American power play. Let us discuss “US creating ISIS”. Is it a secret that US, Russia, Chinese, Iranians, Saudis, Pakistanis and other countries have not created “Assets” that even though may seem counter to one’s interest (at least in narrative) but actually carry out a longer term strategic objective. We know how Pakistan uses the Jehadis for their “strategic depth”.
First, it is not very clear that Hillary or Obama or any of the establishments ever created ISIS. After all, the people who are converging to it are the radical and demented Islamists. But even if they did, it might actually be a way to counter the other Jehadis by bringing every Jehadi under one umbrella and use ISIS as a ruse to obliterate the Islamists around the world.
The question remains – as a Presidential nominee, do you go out with discussing that? Was that the red herring that brought Obama and the Intelligence establishment out to denounce Trump? Because if ISIS is to 21st century what the “Dictators” were to the 20th (to counter the Communist forces), then Trump could be putting US in far more danger than one thought.
Second, whether US is actually backing and has created ISIS or not, it is now deemed to have. Already there was a narrative around the Islamic world that US was behind ISIS. And that was one of the biggest reason for hatred for US amongst the moderate groups in the Islamic world!! They hated US because the worst of Islam – the ISIS – was actually the creation of the US. So now what better way to proliferate that narrative than to have it endorsed by a Presidential nominee. Or God forbid a President HIMSELF!
When a political campaign battle becomes a “free for all” in the terms of national interest, the country is in major danger!
5
Making Extreme Abuse and Bigotry the New Normal: Abuse and bigotry have been the two most important issues with the acts and words of Donald Trump! And, interestingly and sadly, this has won him the support of many Americans. It is like they loved how he echoed their own bigotry. And I am not talking of his utterances on the Muslims yet. He has gone on to make fun of everyone and talk trash about every ethnicity. Specifically, his stand on the American judge Gonzalo Curiel who has a Mexican heritage and his ability to do his work the worst case of bigotry. I am an Indian-American like many millions in the US. And what Trump’s stand on Judge Curiel tells me is that my kids and their progeny are DOOMED in this country! It will be quite alright for millions of Americans (supporters of Donald Trump) to trash the future generations of Indian-Americans as non-patriotic or unbiased and fair. And they will forever be profiled! That screws with the very base of the American way of life.
If the dice are stacked so badly against the non-white immigrants specifically (for, everyone is an immigrant in the US), then why should someone even come to this nation and make it his/her own? This is the kind of genie, who when out of the box, will never be put back again! And it is the single most red flag that should make every immigrant to the US shudder about their future generations.
Conclusion
Given these actions, traits and characteristics of Trump it is a no-brainer that the future of US is being compromised in an unpredented manner! One hopes this manner of politics is just a one-off aberration but the greatest worry is that this may be the new normal which may take the US democracy down a suicidal spiral!
America's Justice Department and SEC have targeted India's Adani Group with a bribery case. Using Nationalistic sentiment doesn't help. Yes, law has been weaponized and India's sovereignty compromised but not how they think. A definitive guide to understanding the case.
There was a clear warning from Putin on provision of long range missiles that could hit deep into Russia to Ukraine. It would be consider as a direct attack by NATO on Russia. Biden has done just that!
The premise and the mindset apparent in the new Trump team points to an interesting world out there. Things will not be rosy, but they will be very different. Very, very different.
The US, and indeed the world has seen a watershed event of Donald Trump's victory. It will change the US direction and may have pushed a World War by at least 3-4 years.
Every Sunday AM (US Time)/ PM (India time), we send out a weekly detailed newsletter. We also share other insightful notes during the week. Its free. Do sign up and share with friends!