Bangladesh on the Brink: How the Looming Crisis Could Redefine Asia's Borders and Threaten Modi's India

History repeats.

Sometimes in strange ways. The victims of one era become the perpetrators of crimes of another.

The whole saga of Bangladesh is very intriguing and damning at the same time. It brought untold misery and violence in 1971, 1975 and now.

The players are not very different. The game is also not very different. Motivations of control are almost the same.

The roles of some may have changed. And one person (and his team) making the difference this time is the radical departure - Narendra Modi.

Will the results be different? Time will tell.

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The Night of Massacres

On the night of August 14th, a bunch of junior officers killed almost the entire family of Mujibur Rahman, the undisputed ruler of Bangladesh until then.

In June 1975, Indira Gandhi unleashed the Emergency rule on India. It was the abandonment of India's constitution. One thing she was fearful of was the "foreign hand" - which later came to be used as a joke almost for her high-handed actions.

Sanjay Gandhi and his friends' usurping of emergency powers notwithstanding, the threat of external powers targeting India and Indira Gandhi was real.

Nitin A. Gokhale shares the details in his biography of Rameshwar Nath Kao, who was the founding chief of India's external intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) in his book "Gentleman's Spymaster". He shares one conversation that RN Kao had with Pupul Jayakar.

He told Jayakar, years later, 'Mrs Gandhi was the target of attack, not y agents of foreign powers but by Indian recruits who are likely to act as stooges of foreign powers and she was quite right in her suspicion"

Mujibur Rahman's fate was also apparently awaiting Indira Gandhi. In a twisted turn of fate, the Emergency may have saved Indira Gandhi!

The elimination of the entire family of Mujibur Rahman was very devastating for Indira Gandhi. She became very fearful of everyone thereafter.

As Kao had suggested, the real fear and threat was from the internal stooges of the foreign powers.

In a webinar commemorating the 45th anniversary of the assassination of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, investigative journalist Lawrence Lifschultz, who was the South Asia correspondent for the Far Eastern Economic Review at the time of the assassination, made a startling revelation.

The webinar, titled "Bangladesh 1975: Setting the Clock Back," was organized by the Centre for Research and Information (CRI) and featured several prominent speakers, including author Salil Tripathi, economist Dr. Mohammed Farashuddin, and journalist Syed Badrul Ahsan.

Here is what he suggested.

He has discussed this in a paper as well.

See how the history in the subcontinent is repeating itself.

Several years since Khaleda Zia and Zia-ur-Rahman's son was working with the ISI for the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina this month.

Here are a few things that are worth remembering.

The same players are still working together in 2024. The threats that India and India's Prime Minister - Narendra Modi now - face is also very similar.

What Kao said about the threats to Indira Gandhi is very true of the current situation facing Modi.

The unfortunate reality of India is that the young kid whose thought had so disturbed Indira Gandhi is now doing to India and its security what Indira Gandhi's (and his, at that time) enemies were planning against her.

Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury, the Editor of Blitz, a Bangladeshi journalist revealed in a Republic TV debate that Rahul Gandhi had a secret meeting with Tarique Rahman, the acting Chairperson of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, during his visit to London.

The same Tariq Rahman who was working with the ISI.

The threat to India and India's PM Narendra Modi is real.

Hindenburg Research, the jokers of the financial world, are threatening and targeting India again.

They followed that up with a report that targets SEBI Chairperson Madhabi Buch.

Hindenburg's first attempt at sabotaging Adani was quite pathetic from the financial research standpoint and we had brought that out clearly.

But it is not all innocent and harmless. It is a harbinger of things to come. It is, if you will, the first salvo.

In this whole project of Bangladesh that happened, CIA's signatures are clearly there. Just as they were in the assassination of Mujibbur Rahman.

The one major reason for US involvement has been its interest in Saint Martin's island.

Dhaka-8 MP Rashed Khan Menon has asserted that the United States is after Saint Martin's Island and that the new US visa policy is part of a strategy for “regime change”. “The US wants Saint Martin's Island and they want Bangladesh in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). They are doing everything to destabilize the current government,” he said during the general discussion on the proposed budget for the 2023-24 fiscal year in the national parliament on Wednesday. The Workers Party president said: "Those who are friends of the United States do not need enemies. Some time ago, the US imposed sanctions on Bangladesh to keep it in check. Now, they have declared visa policies in light of the upcoming elections. This is not just harmful, it is part of their 'regime change' strategy. "During our Liberation War, they dispatched the Seventh Fleet, aiming to strip us of our hard-won victory. Amidst a severe famine, they rerouted a grain ship from the Indian Ocean, a calculated move to disrupt Bangabandhu's administration. Their clandestine influence was also involved in the assassination of Bangabandhu. Now, they are repeating such tactics, doing all within their power to undermine the existing government," he remarked. (Source: Menon: US wants Saint Martin’s Island / Dhaka Tribune)

We will come to this and other geopolitical considerations. But first let us take a look at the turn of events and the layers involved.

What started the "fire"?

After the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971, the newly established state of Bangladesh was founded on the principles and promises made by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the father of the nation. One of his primary commitments was to ensure justice for those who had sacrificed their lives and endured atrocities during the war, particularly at the hands of the Pakistani military. However, after this assassination in 1975, subsequent governments expanded the quota system to include other marginalized groups such as residents of underdeveloped areas, ethnic minorities, and people with disabilities. Over time, the system became more complex and covered a significant portion of government jobs.

By 2018, 56% of government jobs were reserved under various quotas.

But then, in response to massive student protests, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government abolished the quota system in 2018. However, in June 2024, the High Court reinstated the 30% quota for freedom fighters' families, sparking renewed protests.

The action was taken by the Supreme Court in Bangladesh and had nothing to do with Sheikh Hasina. Yet the protests got directed towards her.

Apparently, unrelated issues to the original narrative of the protesters also were added - broader economic issues, including high youth unemployment and stagnant job growth in the private sector.

The situation got out of hand when the government deployed of riot police, used tear gas, rubber bullets, and sound grenades.

This led to clashes between protesters, police, and ruling party-backed student activists. Soon, it escalated into numerous injuries and deaths. Also Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina refused to to meet the protesters' demands and labeled of them as "razakar".

Their slogan was - “Ami Ki ? Tumi ki ? Razakar, Razakar”

Who were the Razakars and why it was so significant that the students took on that epithet when Hasina called them so?

During Operation Searchlight in 1971, the Pakistani Army, supported by auxiliary forces like the Razakars, carried out a brutal campaign of violence and repression against the Bengali population in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). This operation marked the beginning of what is widely recognized as the Bengali genocide.

The Razakars, alongside the Pakistani military, attacked Hindu neighborhoods, looted properties, and burned homes. These attacks were aimed at terrorizing the Hindu population and forcing them to flee, contributing to the massive refugee crisis that saw millions of Bengalis, including a significant number of Hindus, fleeing to India. (Source: Blood telegrams on genocide of Hindus in Bangladesh, and how US turned blind eye / India Today)

To understand what happened in the run-up to that fateful helicopter flight of Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehana from Dhaka to New Delhi.

The Chronology

To better understand what has happened and why, let us get into major events since the time that the quota system was announced. An issue that precipitated it all.

We have also included the visits by Hasina outside and of people from China, US and India to Bangladesh - so we can get a full view of who came when and what it would have meant.

January 1972: Sheikh Mujibur Rahman returns to Dhaka following his release from Pakistani custody. He is greeted as a national hero and assumes leadership of the new nation. (Source: The Hindu)

1972: Mujib establishes a quota system aimed at providing opportunities for those who had significantly contributed to the independence struggle. This included freedom fighters (Mukti Bahini members) and women who had been subjected to sexual violence by Pakistani soldiers. The quotas were intended to ensure these groups had access to government jobs and educational opportunities as a form of reparative justice.

August 15, 1975: Sheikh Mujibur Rahman is assassinated in a military coup. This event marks a significant shift in the political landscape of Bangladesh. (Source: New York Times)

Post-1975: Following Mujib's assassination, the quota system undergoes several changes. The military regimes and subsequent governments extend the quotas to include other underrepresented sections of society. This includes individuals from underdeveloped areas, ethnic minorities, and various marginalized communities. The original intent of the quota system, which was to honor the sacrifices of freedom fighters and war-affected women, becomes diluted over time. (Source: The Hindu | Wikipedia)

1996: Sheikh Hasina becomes the Prime Minister of Bangladesh for the first time. Her government initiates policies favoring secularism, leading to opposition from Islamic political groups and parties. (Source: Banglapedia)

2001: The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) under Khaleda Zia wins the elections. Reservations against Sheikh Hasina's policies on secularism and minority rights grow, with increased polarization in the country.

2009: Sheikh Hasina returns to power. She continues her secular policies, intensifies trials against war criminals from the 1971 Liberation War, which is opposed by several Islamist groups and political parties. (Source: Banglapedia)

2013: The rise of protests against the war crime trials leads to a significant divide in Bangladeshi politics. Sheikh Hasina’s government faces severe criticism from both domestic and international entities regarding human rights violations.

2014: The opposition boycotts the general elections, leading to a landslide victory for Sheikh Hasina. This period marks increasing reservations from the international community, especially regarding the legitimacy of her government.

2018: Sheikh Hasina wins a third consecutive term in a landslide victory. However, allegations of electoral fraud and suppression of opposition become more pronounced. The United States and other Western countries express concerns about the fairness of the election.

March 8, 2018: Bangladesh High Court rejects a petition challenging the legality of the quota system. Sheikh Hasina declares her intent to maintain the quota for the descendants of liberation war veteran

March 20 2022: Victoria Nuland, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, visits Bangladesh to participate in the United States-Bangladesh Partnership Dialogue. She meets with Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen and other senior officials to discuss bilateral ties, security cooperation, and the Rohingya crisis. Concerns about human rights and democratic processes in Bangladesh are reportedly raised during the meetings. (Source: World Socialist Web Site | US Embassy)

September 6th, 2022: Sheikh Hasina visits India again for bilateral talks. She meets with PM Modi and other Indian officials. Key issues include energy cooperation, border management, and the Teesta water-sharing agreement. India expresses its support for Bangladesh’s economic development and stability (Source: PIB) August 7th 2022: Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister, visits Bangladesh. He meets with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen. The discussions revolve around strengthening economic ties, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, and regional security. China expresses support for Bangladesh’s development projects and infrastructure initiatives. (Source: Diplomat)

January 14th 2023: Donald Lu, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, visits Bangladesh. He meets with Sheikh Hasina, Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen, and other key officials. The discussions focus on US-Bangladesh relations, regional security, and democracy. Lu emphasizes the importance of free and fair elections in Bangladesh. (Source: Modern Diplomacy)

May 11-12, 2023: Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar participated in the 6th Indian Ocean Conference held in Dhaka. During this visit, he held bilateral discussions with Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Foreign Minister Dr. A.K. Abdul Momen. The discussions focused on the Indo-Pacific region, emphasizing its growing significance and the need for regional cooperation (Source: The Hindu)

May 28th, 2023:  Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong visited Bangladesh later in May 2023, as part of the 12th round of diplomatic consultations between Bangladesh and China. During this visit, he met with Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Foreign Minister Abul Kalam Abdul Momen to discuss enhancing bilateral relations and cooperation on various projects. China’s stance on the Rohingya issue and its implications for regional security is also discussed (Source: The Geopolitics) May 14-15 2024: Donald Lu makes another visit to Bangladesh. This time, he engages in extensive discussions about the upcoming general elections, emphasizing the importance of having transparent and fair electoral processes. He also meets with key leaders of the opposition parties, encouraging open and constructive dialogue between the government and opposition factions. During his visit, he addresses various concerns about electoral integrity and the need for all parties to cooperate to ensure a smooth and credible election. Additionally, he participates in several forums and public discussions to further promote the principles of democracy and good governance. (Source: Pacific Forum)

June 9, 2024: Sheikh Hasina attended the swearing-in ceremony of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Union Council of Ministers. This visit was part of a larger gathering of leaders from India's neighborhood and the Indian Ocean region (Source: Nikkei)

June 21-22, 2024: Sheikh Hasina meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi. The discussions center on bilateral relations, including trade, water sharing, and security cooperation. The two leaders emphasize the importance of regional stability and connectivity projects. (Source: The Diplomat)

July 1, 2024: Student-led protests begin against the quota system for government jobs, demanding its abolition. The protests gain momentum as public dissatisfaction with the government grows. Protests intensify following a court ruling that upholds the quota system. Demonstrations spread across Bangladeshi universities and cities, with increasing public support. (Source: Firstpost)

July 8th to 10th, 2024: Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, embarks on an official visit to Beijing with the primary aim of strengthening diplomatic and economic ties between the two nations. The visit is expected to encompass a series of high-level meetings, discussions on bilateral trade agreements, and collaborative projects that could enhance mutual growth and cooperation. However, due to unforeseen circumstances, which could include emergencies back home or important developments requiring her immediate attention, she is compelled to cut the visit short and return to her country earlier than initially planned. This abrupt change in her schedule underscores the dynamic and unpredictable nature of international diplomacy. (Source: Business Standard)

July 16, 2024: Violent clashes between protesters and police have tragically resulted in at least six deaths. This tragic loss of life has further inflamed already high tensions in the area. The severity of the situation has drawn significant international attention, highlighting the growing unrest and the urgent need for a resolution. The ongoing conflict has raised concerns among global leaders and human rights organizations who are calling for immediate action to address the underlying issues. (Source: Firstpost)

August 4, 2024: Thousands of protesters forcefully stormed the Prime Minister's official residence, known as Ganabhaban, amid a backdrop of escalating violence and widespread unrest throughout the region. In response to the chaotic situation and in an effort to restore some semblance of order, the military has imposed a strict curfew, urging citizens to stay indoors and avoid any unnecessary travel. (Source: Business Insider)

August 5, 2024: Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, resigns from her position and subsequently flees the country amidst growing political turmoil. Accompanied by her sister, Sheikh Rehana, she reportedly takes a military helicopter to India for safety. This unexpected development comes after weeks of escalating tensions and protests that have engulfed the nation. The two sisters' departure marks a significant moment in Bangladesh's political landscape, leaving many to speculate about the future of the country's leadership and stability. (Source: Firstpost)

August 8th: Muhammad Yunus takes oath as the interim Prime Minister.

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took the oath of office as head of Bangladesh’s interim government Thursday after protests forced out former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina this week. (Source: Associated Press)

Interesting choice. Who is this man Muhammad Yunus?

Who is Muhammad Yunus?

Yunus shot into fame due to his work in micro-credit with Grameen Bank. He won the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2006.

In December 2006, the Bangladeshi organization Ain O Salish Kendra, established in 1986 celebrated its 20th anniversary. That function was attended by Muhammad Yunus, Amartya Sen, Fazle Hasan Abed, George Soros, and Sultana Kamal. Here are some pictures.

A brief on the NGO for which such high profile personalities came together in 2006. The partnership of Yunus and Soros was apparent in that commemoration.

On special request from Yunus, George Soros had invested $11 mn in Grameen Telecom.

Why is George Soros' presence in Bangladesh so significant specifically concerning his relationship with Muhammad Yunus - a man who has not just been indicted for money crimes but within weeks comes back to become its head?

Here is the link.

Earlier this year on June 12, 2024, Yunus was indicted by a Bangladeshi court for embezzling $2 mn from the workers' welfare fund of Grameen Telecom. He is also accused of money laundering.

Not just embezzlement, Yunus was indicted and given a sentence for 6 months in jail in January 2024 for violating the labor laws in Bangladesh.

This man, who is out on bail is now the Prime Minister of Bangladesh within a few weeks of being indicted for money laundering and embezzlement by the Bangladeshi judiciary.

What about his work in micro-credit? How was that?

Well, diverting money from there was another crime that he has been accused of.

There was this documentary "The Micro Debt" which scrutinized the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Grameen Bank, and its founder, Muhammad Yunus, alleging questionable financial practices, including the transfer of $100 million to a new Grameen entity for tax benefits. This documentary has contributed to Yunus's controversial removal from Grameen Bank and has drawn international attention and awards.

So you see, an interesting person!

Postscript

On August 10, 2024, Bangladesh's Chief Justice Obaidul Hassan resigned amid intense student protests and pressure. A bit of background - Obaidul Hassan was appointed as Chief Justice of Bangladesh's Supreme Court in 2023 and was seen as a loyalist to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. (Source: Why Bangladesh Chief Justice, Sheikh Hasina Loyalist, Was Forced To Quit / NDTV).

What does that mean for Yunus after he was about to be jailed for money laundering and embezzlement? Well, Yunus was acquitted in a corruption case on August 11, 2024. This case involved charges of misappropriating about 25.22 crore Bangladeshi taka from Grameen Telecom workers' profit funds. (Source: Muhammad Yunus acquitted in corruption case / Times of India)

The situation in Bangladesh is quite grim.

Targeting of the Hindus and other Minorities

1. Hindu temples, including an ISKCON temple in Meherpur, have been vandalized and set on fire. Homes and businesses owned by Hindus have been looted and destroyed across at least 27 districts (Source: Temples burnt, houses attacked: How Hindus have become soft targets in Bangladesh / India Today)
2. Two Hindu councilors were killed, and a school teacher was among those killed during the violence. At least 45 people were injured.

Hindu councillor Haradhan Roy of the Rangpur City Corporation was also reportedly killed on Sunday in one of the deadliest days since the start of the protest. Another councillor, identified as Kajal Roy, was also reportedly lynched. Over 100 people died on Sunday as protesters called for Sheikh Hasina's resignation and clashed with the police. (Source: Temples burnt, houses attacked: How Hindus have become soft targets in Bangladesh / India Today)

3. Meanwhile, many Hindus are attempting to flee to India (Source: Fear of persecution pushes Bangladeshi Hindus to flee to India: ‘How long before radicals take over?’ / The Independent)
4. Boycott of Indian products and Hindu shops and products is being done by the locals.

Interestingly, for the first time, the Hindus are coming together.

Here are some slogans in the protests and vigils kept by Hindus being aired.

জাগো রে জাগো, হিন্দু জাগো (Wake up wake up, Hindu wake up)

আমার মাটি আমার মা, আমরা বাংলাদেশ ছাড়বো না (My soil my mother, we will not leave Bangladesh)

জয় হোক সনাতনীর, বিজয় আমরা ছিনিয়ে আনবোই (Victory to the Sanatani, we will snatch victory)

স্থান:শাহবাগ,ঢাকা। (Place: Shahbag, Dhaka)

However, these voices are few.

The fleeing Hindus are coming to the Indian border but there are reports that they are being turned back.

This is the area that they are coming to.

The question is why would the Indian authorities turning them back?

We will come to that.

Medieval Atrocities

The atrocities being committed in Bangladesh are very similar to what ISIS has been doing in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Two bodies were discovered hanging upside down by their feet on a pedestrian bridge along the highway in front of the Ashulia police station.

Here is the video.

Where is Bangladesh headed?

More importantly, where is the world and specifically the situation in India headed?

Putting it all together

In The Sign of Four, the great detective, Sherlock Holmes, famously says: “… when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth …”.

If you look at the media commentators out there, you will find that either they are blaming the US completely or China completely for what happened in Bangladesh. Of course, everyone is consistent that Pakistan did the ground work at the local level with the support from Jamaat-e-Islami.

So let us put the facts down and then look at the motivations. The plots and concerns will emerge on their own.

1. Signatures of both, the US and China are clearly visible in the Bangladesh situation
2. The new Bangladesh administration will enable the United States' ambition of using St. Martin's island
3. The payback for China to be "in" on the "Bangladesh Plan" had to be control over India and the elimination of Modi (like Sheikh Hasina, or worse)
4. The downside for China would be to have an even mightier adversary on her border trying to break it
5. Payback for the Chinese in "India Vs US" would have to include:
   1. a hands-off deal with the United State with respect to Taiwan and South China Sea
   2. Economic/business deal to continue the trade relationships stitched in the last 30 years - backing off from the villainizing of China
   3. Pakistan gets a lease of life due to its contribution in Bangladesh so it can have the strength to stand up to India in Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan area for the CPEC initiative and Gwadar to survive
6. If we see slowing down of QUAD and BRICS initiatives, then we can be clear that this was indeed the case
7. In that deal - of convenience - lies the "geopolitical opportunity" for India. To convert the partnership into competition over the next 5 years.

If the facts and their implications are the ones above then what can happen in the coming days?

The Future Churn

Here is one interesting X post with a map shared by this handle which consistently shares significant insightful posts.

As per this, the plan is to create a "Christian nation" under the aegis of US is something that Sheikh Hasina had suggested in May 2024.

Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has alleged a conspiracy to create a Christian state similar to East Timor by partitioning parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. She claimed she was offered an easy reelection in January if she permitted a foreign nation to establish an airbase in Bangladesh, without disclosing the country's name. (Source: PM Sheikh Hasina alleges plot to carve out Christian state from Bangladesh: ‘A white man offered…’ / Hindustan Times)

She had said that it would include parts of Chattogram in Bangladesh and areas from Myanmar, with a base in the Bay of Bengal. In all probability, even parts of Manipur and Assam were to be part of that.

So if that were true then this map below assumes greater significance.

My argument is that if (1) - a Christian nation were to happen first, then (2) the Indian enclave would be thwarted.

Also, the creation of a Christian State would face many hurdles - almost like the Afghanistan level and style of violence.

And, that would have been part of China's calculation is collaborating with the US as a counter against India by unleashing the events that happened in Bangladesh.

So if the Indian enclave has to come about, Hindus need to come together in that area. That is the area with the highest Hindu population anyway. And, that is why it was the place where the Hindu councilor was attacked as well by the Jamaat-backed radicals.

Given these facts and background, what options does Modi have?

Here comes the importance and criticality of Russia. Russia had warned India and PM Modi of the regime change action 8 months back.

Given Modi's memory and keen history knowledge, he would have known that a repeat of the Mujibur Rahman-style attack was imminent.

One interesting point that the Zee report makes is that somehow Modi worked on the inputs at the last moment during the elections and salvaged the situation.

We had anticipated a similar thing after the result. Read this.

Indeed, the last-minute salvaging of the elections saved India.

The next steps - for the Indian enclave to become a reality, the current dispensation that is openly working to do to West Bengal what happened in Bangladesh needs to be countered.

For that President's rule and putting the Army on the border is paramount.

The coming months will be imperative both within and outside India. The threats from foreign stooges that Kao mentioned Indira Gandhi faced is a real threat for Modi in the coming months as well.

Only a resolve and chutzpah as strong as Indira Gandhi's minus the sabotage by Sanjay Gandhi can save India.