Converging Fissures: Gaming the Global Fault-lines

On a humid July night in 1937, a tense quiet had settled over the Marco Polo Bridge, just outside of Beijing. The bridge, an ancient structure spanning the Yongding River, had seen centuries of soldiers and merchants pass its way, but that night, the stakes were higher.

Chinese troops patrolled the area, their senses sharpened by a growing tension with Japanese forces stationed nearby.

Across the river, the Japanese soldiers moved with a similar nervous energy, aware that one misstep could tip the scale from an uneasy standoff to open conflict.

To this day, no one knows who fired that first shot. Some say it was an accident, a misfire in the quiet of the night; others suspect it was deliberate, a calculated trigger that both sides were waiting for.

Regardless, that single bullet transformed the Marco Polo Bridge from a symbol of antiquity into a crucible of war.

As dawn broke, gunfire shattered the silence. Chinese and Japanese soldiers exchanged fire across the river, the shots echoing through the hills.

The Marco Polo Bridge skirmish had begun.

To outside observers, it might have seemed like just another skirmish in a turbulent era. Japan had been expanding its reach across Asia, nibbling away at Chinese territories since the early 1930s.

Manchuria had fallen years before, but this time, the stakes were different. Beijing was a heartbeat away from the bridge, and the tension rippled through the city as news of the clash spread.

Within days, the skirmish had ignited a full-blown battle, with Japanese forces mobilizing to push deeper into China.

Chinese leaders, divided on their response, ultimately saw no choice but to resist, sparking the Second Sino-Japanese War.

Towns fell under siege, cities burned, and atrocities scarred the Chinese countryside. The scope of Japanese aggression intensified, pushing China to its limits as they fought to hold their ground.

This war would become a nightmare—a relentless grind of loss and suffering for both sides, but especially for the Chinese civilians caught in its path.

As Japan pursued its relentless march across China, an undercurrent of ambition fueled their every advance.

Japan’s leaders envisioned an "Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere," a realm under their control, extending from China into Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

They believed that Japan, with its powerful military and economic potential, could carve out an empire to rival the West.

But this expansionist dream would place Japan on a collision course with the United States, which had vested interests in the Pacific and Asia.

And ultimately to the utter devastation in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Since then, every geopolitical and even cultural decision in China was dictated by what happened during those days.

In this epic and iconic battlescene - Ip Man (Donnie Yen) fights General Miura (Hiroyuki Ikeuchi) for the honor of the Chinese people.

Here is what is relevant from this story.

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North Korea's 'Monster' Missile

North Korea has test-launched the Hwasong-19 missile, which is being called North Korea's advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system. The North Korean state media has unveiled footage of its Hwasong-19. (Source: GMI)

Per some sources, it may have been influenced by Russia's Yars missile technology, with enhancements that increase its range, payload capacity, and precision.

What is most significant about this North Korean missile is that it reached an altitude of 7687.5 km. (Source: North Korea says record test was new Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile / Reuters)

The test was conducted in the eastern waters of North Korea, fell west of Okushiri Island, and the flight lasted 86 minutes.

Here are some of its key features:

• Range: It has an estimated range that could enable it to strike nearly anywhere in the United States. This significantly increases North Korea's deterrence capability.
• Payload and Guidance: Hwasong-19 can carry a heavier payload and is speculated to be equipped with multiple warheads or even MIRVs (Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles), allowing it to strike multiple targets with a single launch.
• Launch Mobility: The Hwasong-19 is mounted on an 11-axle transporter erector launcher (TEL), making it more challenging to detect and intercept. Its mobility enables rapid repositioning, increasing its survivability against preemptive strikes.

This is a time when the US and South Korea are doing joint military exercises. They have done two things: one, the F-15K fighter jet dropped a GBU-12 air-to-ground guided bomb on a North Korean dummy transporter erector launcher

Also, a new element has been introduced in these joint military drills: the collaborative use of American and South Korean unmanned aerial vehicles for target acquisition (ostensibly North Korean targets as well). This marks the first instance of such coordinated drone operations between the two allies, signifying an advancement in their combined defensive capabilities.

The South Korean military trained to strike a missile launcher with a guided bomb on Thursday, in a show of force following North Korea’s launch of a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) earlier in the day. In the exercise, a F-15K fighter jet dropped a GBU-12 air-to-ground guided bomb on a dummy transporter erector launcher (TEL), successfully hitting it, video released by South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) shows. A vehicle pulled the dummy TEL to simulate North Korea’s mobile launcher capabilities, but the bomb was not equipped with a warhead. The training was part of the joint-ROK-U.S. 2024 Freedom Flag drill involving over 110 manned and unmanned aircraft, according to JCS. (Source: ROK trains to strike North Korean missile launcher, hours after ICBM test / NK News)

It is in this situation that the Hwasong-19 ICBM has been tested. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is ecstatic.

Overseeing the launch, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared: “The new-type ICBM proved before the world that the hegemonic position we have secured in the development and manufacture of nuclear delivery means of the same kind is absolutely irreversible,” according to KCNA. (Source: North Korea’s New ICBM May Have Biggest Transporter-Erector-Launcher We’ve Ever Seen / The war Zone)

Please note that Hwasong-19 is a solid-state fuel missile. Just like its predecessor Hwasong-18. That missile marked a departure from past ICBM models – such as the Hwasong-17. Why is this important?

So what do we have here?

As much as Kim Jong Un was made out to be like a joker, he is not.

He is ruthless, autocratic, and exploitative but he is not just messing around here.

Even though he did get assets and help from China and Russia in the military journey, he has marshaled North Korea's own agencies and brain-power enough to create powerful military assets that can be game changers if a global conflict breaks out.

The Chinese "Mysterious" Amphibious Ship Launch

They are calling it a "mysterious ship."

Not sure if it is really that much "mysterious" as it is being made out to be.

Type 076 is a natural successor to what was already in under construction - the Type 075.

In April 2020, China State Shipbuilding Corporation launched a second version of the Type 075 - an amphibious ship. The construction of the landing helicopter dock (LHD) based ships has been remarkable in China.

It has a Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD) and amphibious capabilities.

This version of the Chinese amphibious ships compared well against the Australian, South Korean, and American assault ships.

Now comes the new Type 076 amphibious ship with a Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD). Type 076 is set to become the world's largest amphibious assault ship, featuring a flight deck measuring approximately 263 meters by 43 meters. It is expected to carry a mix of helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and may be equipped with an electromagnetic catapult system for launching fixed-wing aircraft.

From what we can see now of the Type 076, which looks to have been under construction since around October 2023, it is a substantially larger vessel in all regards. A review of satellite imagery from Planet Labs indicates that it is roughly 864 feet long and 141 feet wide (263 and nearly 43 meters, respectively). By comparison, again based on satellite imagery, the Type 075 is 784 feet long and 105 feet wide (almost 239 and 32 meters), while the Fujian is 1,036 feet in length and 275 feet in width (close to 316 and almost 84 meters). (Source: "China’s Type 076 Is Shaping Up To Be A Monster Amphibious Warship" / The Warzone)

China is currently constructing the Type 076 amphibious assault ship at the Hudong-Zhonghua Shipyard on Changxing Island in Shanghai. This shipyard is a subsidiary of the state-owned China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC).

A PLA-backed propaganda handle on X has been vocal about it.

Some of the stuff this handle shares is:

Drone carriers offer a strategic edge in anti-ship operations deep into the Pacific, providing more than just area denial. Unlike missiles, carriers enable active control over vast maritime zones, enhancing flexibility and allowing for incremental escalation if needed. This adaptability is ideal for neutralizing hostile forces around key islands.

By 2030, China's planned naval assets will include three fully operational fleet carriers equipped with J-35 stealth fighters, along with five Type 076 drone carriers designed to launch naval-ready GJ-11 stealth drones. Supported by a comprehensive network of anti-ship missiles from the mainland, these assets would constitute a formidable presence in the Pacific, greatly enhancing power projection and maritime dominance.

This is a good representation of the capabilities of the Type 076 carrier.

In the latest X post, the same handle suggests that this carrier is ready for launch.

All this activity by China is not going unnoticed.

Meanwhile, the United States is helping Japan to build its own aircraft carrier. Ironically named Kaga, after the aircraft carrier that had attacked the US at Pearl Harbor in 1941.

The Japanese warship JS Kaga is set to conduct a series of advanced flight tests with F-35B fighter jets off the coast of San Diego. These trials will include short takeoffs and vertical landings, essential maneuvers for operating F-35Bs on carrier decks. Following these initial tests, JS Kaga will proceed with developmental testing in the Eastern Pacific Ocean to refine and validate the ship’s compatibility with F-35B operations.

In 2018, Japan approved new defense program guidelines aimed at transforming its two Izumo-class ships—JS Kaga and its sister ship, JS Izumo—into fully capable aircraft carriers. This historic shift will make them the first Japanese carriers since World War II. Both vessels are undergoing modifications to support the operations of U.S.-designed F-35B stealth fighters, specifically chosen for their short-takeoff and vertical-landing abilities, which align with the design and operational requirements of these converted carriers. This modernization effort marks a significant evolution in Japan's maritime defense strategy, enhancing its power projection capabilities and deepening its interoperability with U.S. forces in the region.

Meanwhile, Japan has signed a deal with the US to buy 400 Tomahawk missiles (200 Block IV missiles and 200 upgraded Block V versions) in January 2024.

The Japanese government said that the nation "is facing its “severest” security environment since World War II because of threats from China and North Korea."

Korean-Russia Collaboration?

The collaboration between China, Russia, and North Korea may be stronger and more consequential than we may understand.

For example, Deputy United States Ambassador to the United Nations, Robert Wood, alleged in a statement at the Security Council Thursday that American intelligence shows there are about 8,000 North Korean troops now in Russia’s Kursk region.

Now, given the American record at making allegations in the UNSC earlier (Colin Powell?) this may turn out to be another war-mongering statement.

These kinds of "moralistic stands" by the American administrations now seem rather silly.

In fact, these stands are now having the reverse impact on their actual political stature.

Arbitrary US Sanctions, Hypocrisy and De-dollarization

This week, for example, the US sanctioned 400 companies an individuals of which 21 (19 companies and 2 individuals) are Indian for doing business with Russia.

The United States has announced sweeping sanctions on around 400 entities and individuals globally — including 19 from India — for their alleged roles in "supporting Russia's ongoing war" against Ukraine. The US Department of the Treasury stated that companies from China, Switzerland, Thailand, and Turkey were also sanctioned for providing advanced technology and equipment Russia desperately needs to support its war machine. The Department also targeted several senior Russian Ministry of Defence officials appointed earlier this year and defence companies and those supporting Russia’s future energy production and exports. "The United States and our allies will continue to take decisive action across the globe to stop the flow of critical tools and technologies that Russia needs to wage its illegal and immoral war against Ukraine," Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo said. "As evidenced by today's action, we are unyielding in our resolve to diminish and degrade Russia's ability to equip its war machine and stop those seeking to aid their efforts through circumvention or evasion of our sanctions and export controls," Adeyemo said. (Source: US sanctions 19 Indian companies for 'aiding Russia's war' against Ukraine / India Today)

What is interesting is that these sanctions are purely US-led and do not have any backing from the global export control regimes or treaties that are in place. They also have no backing in the UN Security Council.

Even more telling is the reaction from the companies that have been sanctioned. They don't give a rat's arse about these actions. They have a market and they are not interested in the US or European countries.

And, this needs to be viewed in the context of the regular willly-nilly imposition of financial sanctions by the US and its aftermath.

After all, sanctions aren't being used anymore. They are being abused. Take a look at how their use has become rampant in recent years!

If these sanctions had any impact, then this sanction-fetish could have been brushed aside. The fact is that they have created an entire coalition against the US and Europe.

So the move towards de-dollarization.

This FIIA publication examines Russia's ongoing de-dollarization strategy, intensified since 2022, as a reaction to Western sanctions. Initially aimed at reducing reliance on the US dollar in 2014, this initiative has evolved to increase the use of the ruble in trade and reserves.

We have to be cognizant that Russia's actions are part of a broader shift toward a multipolar financial system, where global players - specifically in the Global South - are now seeking alternatives to the US dollar to avoid American sanction abuse.

The FIIA analysis suggests that continued sanctions may end up bolstering non-dollar trade and diminish the dollar’s dominance, aligning with a fragmented, multipolar economic landscape.

But the real kicker came early last week.

How more ironic could it get?

That itself should give you enough information on the effectiveness and also arbitrariness of the sanctions by egotist American administrations.

Helping Russia?

As for "helping Russia in the war on Ukraine" - well how about the fact that European Union countries bought €2.6 billion ($2.8 billion) worth of crude oil from Russia in just the first six months of 2024?

Didn't that help Russia in Ukraine?

How about that?

A Global Witness investigation reveals that in 2023 the EU imported 130 million barrels of seaborne refined products – mostly diesel – from refineries processing Russian crude. These purchases were worth an estimated €1.1 billion to the Kremlin in direct tax revenues. To put that number into perspective, it’s equal to NATO’s recent €1.1 billion contract to supply Ukraine with artillery as the country struggles to fend off Russia’s escalating attacks with dwindling supplies of ammunition. For the Kremlin, it’s enough money to purchase over 1,200 Kalibr cruise missiles or 60,000 Shahed drones, both of which have been used to bomb cities and kill civilians across Ukraine. (Source: "EU purchases of laundered Russian oil worth an estimated €1.1 billion to the Kremlin in 2023" / Global Witness)

Interestingly, the EU has imported €3 billion worth of oil products from three major Turkish ports: Ceyhan, Marmara Ereğlisi, and Mersin.

A new report from CREA and the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) has revealed that since the EU/G7 petroleum products ban took effect on 5 February 2023 until the end of February 2024, the EU has imported EUR 3 billion of oil products from three Turkish ports, Ceyhan, Marmara Ereğlisi, and Mersin, which have no refining hubs and have imported 86% of their oil products from Russia in the same period. Turkey’s imports of Russian oil have grown almost fivefold over the last decade. In 2023, Turkey became the world’s biggest buyer of Russian oil products and imported 18% of Russia’s total exports of oil products, increasing reliance on Russia for the supply of seaborne refined oil products, mainly diesel, gasoil, and jet fuel. This reliance has risen from 52% in 2022 to 72% in 2023. (Source: "A Kremlin pit stop: EU imports EUR 3 bn of oil products from Turkish ports handling Russian oil" / Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air)

The situation in Ukraine meanwhile is turning for the worst for Zelensky-led Ukrainian government that is backed by the US and Europe.

Why?

Is it over for Ukraine?

Because Kyiv lost more land last week than ever since the war began.

The video below shows the Russian Army's advances in 2024 within Ukraine. (Source: Clash Report / X post)

The mainstream media in the US is now acknowledging that Russian advances are becoming significant.

American military and intelligence officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains, and the sense of pessimism in Kyiv and Washington is deepening. The dip in morale and questions about whether American support will continue pose their own threat to Ukraine’s war effort. Ukraine is losing territory in the east, and its forces inside Russia have been partially pushed back. The Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and equip new units. The number of its soldiers killed in action, about 57,000, is half of Russia’s losses but still significant for the much smaller country. (Source: "As Russia Advances, U.S. Fears Ukraine Has Entered a Grim Phase" / New York Times)

As we speak, Russia storms through Donetsk, swallowing ground, zeroing in on Pokrovsk—a critical lifeline. Securing it could ignite a break west toward Dnipropetrovsk, and south toward Zaporizhia. Momentum builds.

This week, Selydovo fell. Their largest prize since Avdiivka. Now, Russian forces push hard for Kurakhov. A town along the N-15 highway. A lifeline. A battleground. Kurakhov sits near a thin stretch of the Vovcha River, pivotal for troops and supplies. The Russians know it. They close in, relentless, just 20 miles from Pokrovsk.

Kurakhov holds the line. Russian units press within three miles. Their path clear. Control over Kurakhov would break the Ukrainian stronghold. The pocket tightens. Surrounded from the north, east, and south. Ukraine braces. The Russian advance is near.

This is how it is looking currently.

As the War Zone also reiterates, Russian forces are within 8 miles of the Ukrainian logistics hub of Pokrovsk. Its fall could be a serious Operational Catastrophe.

All this comes at a time when the Ukrainian forces are at their lowest.

The firebrand Ukrainian MP and member of the Ukrainian Committee on National Security - Mariana Bezuhla - has painted a rather grim picture.

She says:

Check out Bezhula's X post.

Anthony Blinken made a statement on the possible deployment of North Korean troops and the advances that Russia has made.

He is right that the use of North Korean troops in this battle suggests that Russian troop numbers are growing thin.

While some may draw consolation from this scenario, we may, however, be pushing closer to a nuclear showdown and catastrophe very soon.

This was issued in August 2024.

While the Russian Minister is coming from the lessons learned during the Cold War, where backdoor diplomacy would ensure the two powers did not launch a nuclear strike; the US foreign minister seems to be rejoicing at the prospect of pushing Russia to a point where it may not have many options left.

They ensured that under no circumstances would any side devastatingly attack the other.

The Truth about the Ukraine War

That convention was thrown out of the window when the Ukraine war conditions were created right after the USSR was dismantled.

Something went wrong from the beginning. And no one acknowledged it.

We have tried to piece things together in our newsletters. Here is one example.

Drishtikone Newsletter #331: Ukraine, the next Afghanistan?

From NGOs for Democracy Promotion to takeover by Private Militias, Ukraine’s slide was ‘managed’. Detailed behind-the-scenes games in Ukraine.

Drishtikone: In-Depth Geopolitics, Cultural Analysis, and Hinduism InsightsDesh Kapoor

This was another:

India’s Strategic Autonomy and the Price of Ukraine War for the World!

When the US Ambassador threatened India’s “Strategic Autonomy” policy over India’s friendship with Russia - much more than meets the eye was at stake. Let us unpack how the Ukraine war has fundamentally changed the US and the world. And why are we here anyway?

Drishtikone: In-Depth Geopolitics, Cultural Analysis, and Hinduism InsightsDesh Kapoor

What the West - USA and certain European powers were thinking came out as part of a prank.

In February 2023, Germany’s ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a conversation made public by Russian pranksters Vladimir Kuznetsov (Vovan) and Alexei Stolyarov (Lexus) that the signing of the Minsk agreements gave Ukraine time to develop between 2014 and 2021 and served to ensure that the West be able to furnish the necessary support to Kyiv against Moscow.

What did that mean?

War for Ukraine or Against Russia?

That Ukraine was being prepared as a weapon against Russia.

This came out very clearly in the expose of what Boris told Ukrainian President Zelensky in 2022 that the West preferred a war because it would weaken Russia.

The obvious question is - was the Ukraine War for Ukraine or against Russia? even when there was peace in sight, the West brushed it aside.

This aligns with the steps taken by the US and Europe that led to the Ukraine War.

In this regard, we have shared the discussions by Prof. John Mearsheimer on the real origins of the Ukraine war.

But today we share another voice.

Dr. Gabrielle Krone-Schmalz, a prominent German intellectual and former journalist, recently delivered a compelling talk at the "37th Pleisweiler Gespräch."

Having served as a Moscow correspondent for ARD, Germany's largest public broadcaster, and as a professor of media studies, Dr. Krone-Schmalz has become one of the most outspoken critics of Germany's detrimental policies toward Russia.

She is among the few voices who openly discuss the real roots of the ongoing conflict in Europe, demonstrating that there are indeed Europeans who understand the situation deeply and recognize the recklessness of today's political and media elites.

This lecture is a wonderful recollection of historical events and details that are overlooked and twisted.

Historical amnesia helps those who want to wage wars.

Gabriele Krone-Schmalz brings out another very interesting point that no one discusses - the primacy of the Eurasian continent in the geopolitical calculations of American power strategies.

Nicholas Spykman, wrote in his very scholarly treatise "America's Strategy In World Politics" in 1942 about the significance of the Eurasian continent or "Old World" as he called it.

Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in a piece in Foreign Policy in September/October 1997 about the power of the Eurasian region and why it will be the greatest threat to the United States.

Eurasia is home to most of the world's politically assertive and dynamic states. All the historical pretenders to global power originated in Eurasia. The world's most populous aspirants to regional hegemony, China and India, are in Eurasia, as are all the potential political or economic challengers to American primacy. After the United States, the next six largest economies and military spenders are there, as are all but one of the world's overt nuclear powers, and all but one of the covert ones. Eurasia accounts for 75 percent of the world's population, 60 percent of its GNP, and 75 percent of its energy resources. Collectively, Eurasia's potential power overshadows even America's. Eurasia is the world's axial supercontinent. A power that dominated Eurasia would exercise decisive influence over two of the world's three most economically productive regions, Western Europe and East Asia. A glance at the map also suggests that a country dominant in Eurasia would almost automatically control the Middle East and Africa. With Eurasia now serving as the decisive geopolitical chessboard, it no longer suffices to fashion one policy for Europe and another for Asia. What happens with the distribution of power on the Eurasian landmass will be of decisive importance to America's global primacy and historical legacy. (Source: A Geostrategy for Eurasia / Foreign Affairs)

So control over Eurasia is the main takeaway.

So you see, what really transpired in Ukraine was not what the Western media has made it out to be.

Let us sum it up.

So they wanted the Cold War scenario and the threats, but no safety measures to stop mutual annihilation.

What can one chalk this up to? Hubris - as we discussed last time? Or an even more dangerous game - like global colonial 'Hunger Games' type scenario as we have discussed as well?

And, it is getting worse.

Interestingly, this time Russia is no longer alone. It has some formidable partners in China and North Korea. Maybe the economy isn't their greatest strength at the moment, but they pack enough firepower on the battlefield to singlehandedly wipe out a few nations from the European continent and inflict heavy damage within the US.

Now let us come to another aspect that is often missed out while discussing the geopolitical war scenarios - economics.

New Cold War and Decoupling Economies

It is fashionable to talk about the new Cold War and also push aggressively for the "economic decoupling between the US and China." This became popular during the Trump era but the Chip War initiated by the Biden administration accentuated the effort.

The flow and movement of global economic integration have gone up and down over the last century and more.

The global economies are intertwined in very deep ways. Over the years, this has brought efficiencies and strengthened the Supply Chains across the world.

It has also brought prosperity for many economies and countries.

But if the global economy was to be decoupled - then the cost and pain may be very high. The IMF study shares the impact of such decoupling.

This would lead to a loss of trillions of dollars on a yearly basis.

De-risking the economies - European and American - from China impact is a great idea. But Decoupling would be disastrous.

Yellen, a first-rate economist, knows all of this. In one sense, she was correct when she said, in an exchange following her testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on June 13, that it would be disastrous “to attempt to decouple from China. De-risk? Yes. Decouple? Absolutely not.” Alas, this is a false dichotomy. A complete decoupling is a straw man. The reality is far more incremental. (Source: US-China Decoupling by the Numbers / Project Syndicate)

Well said.

"The reality is far more incremental."

Under normal circumstances.

Not when those in charge of the geopolitical theaters within the European countries and the US are bent upon the game of brinksmanship.

Brinksmanship and Decoupling

Here are a few variables and factors that people do not evaluate when discussing the fallout of the Ukraine war creating a sense of brinksmanship scenario that Lavrov issued his warning around.

1. Chemical and Biological Weapons (CBWs)
2. Cyber warfare
3. Space warfare - the destruction of satellites
4. Use of Private Military Contractors (PMCs) and Non-State Actors (like the ones Canada and Pakistan use against India)
5. PsyOps and Social Unrest - even Civil War

Every one of these can unleash devastating scenarios.

Imagine one (or more) of the major military powers - like the US, Russia, China, the UK, France, Israel, Iran, and North Korea - deploying multiple tools at once.

When any of these powers are pushed to the wall, they have the wherewithal to deploy any of these in combination.

There are some scenarios if any or multiple of these tools are deployed that could render "incremental decoupling" a pipedream.

What happens then?

And, what we are saying is a plausible scenario because the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) will expire in February 2026. It was extended in 2021.

Both the US and Russia have meticulously planned their respective nuclear modernization programs based on the assumption that neither country will exceed the force levels currently dictated by New START. Without a deal after 2026, that assumption immediately disappears; both sides would likely default to mutual distrust amid fewer verifiable data points, and our discourse would be dominated by worst case thinking about how both countries’ arsenals would grow in the future. For an example of this kind of thinking, look no further than the new Chair of the House Armed Services Committee, who argued in response to the State Department’s findings of Russian noncompliance that “The Joint Staff needs to assume Russia has or will be breaching New START caps.” As previously mentioned, the State Department report explicitly states that they have only found Russia to be noncompliant on facilitating inspections and BCC meetings, not on deployed warheads and launchers. (Source: If Arms Control Collapses, US and Russian Strategic Nuclear Arsenals Could Double In Size / Federation of American Scientists)

Under the current scenario of the Ukraine war, any bets on New START renewing in 2026?

The three states that have and can perform the best mediating role between the two camps are India, Türkiye, and the Vatican.

The first two have relationships with both camps, while the Vatican still has channels with the orthodox church.

But all this depends on the kind of escalation.

If the attack using CBWs or Nukes (not tactical) or major Space war takedown is against the US, Israel, or a European NATO ally, then the escalation will be severe.

And that cannot be completely ruled out.

And yes, we haven't yet brought in the Middle East war front here. That in itself could lead to a major escalation on its own.

Serious Analyses Lacking

While many observers and analysts are doing excellent analyses on one variable scenario, a complete analysis is lacking.

No nation, or even individual works that way.

We are in a multi-variate matrix and disparate events and occurrences can impact a situation.

We are currently witnessing a very unique situation in the world - where everyone from astrologers to geopolitical analysts is pointing to something serious giving way.

Will we have the sagacity to work for humanity or our own petty goals?