Has Biden Declared War against Russia?

Sukhdev, Rajguru and Bhagat Singh were the most inspiring Indian freedom fighters during the run up the Indian independence.

They were sentenced to death in the Lahore conspiracy case and ordered to be hanged on 24 March 1931.

On the evening of March 23rd, a number of people had come together near the jail in order to raise their voice for last minute commutation.

Everyone wanted to do something for the trio but were dejected that the time wasn't enough. One old gentleman, however, stated the obvious but powerful message.

Raat Darmiyan Ast (رات درمیان است) or in Hindi - रात दरमियान अस्त. It means - The night is in the middle.

In other words, there is still some time until the deadline.

This incident was shared by my grandfather in our conversations when I was a kid. He was there in those meetings and shared his eye-witness accounts of what transpired in those dark days.

Unfortunately, the British in an unprecedented act of illegal action, moved the schedule forward by 11 hours and the three were hanged on 23 March 1931 at 7:30 pm in the Lahore jail. Just as the people in the group were discussing the ways to save Sukhdev, Rajguru and Bhagat Singh.

Recently, in a podcast discussion, I was asked if I feel the transfer of power would happen peacefully and Trump will be able to assume charge and bring about the changes he and his team have promised.

My answer to the podcast anchor was the same phrase that was shared by that old man on that evening of March 23rd in Lahore.

Raat Darmiyan Ast

There still were a couple of months when many things could go wrong.

The Military Industrial Complex could push the current dispensation - which has a predisposed disposition to continue wars that will create value streams for such forces.

Those who have been reading this newsletter may have been thinking that we have a rather dreary sense of the world, where we are focusing on how things could go wrong.

The fact is that the more one goes into the intentions and greed, the more things start converging.

The Warning

In middle of September this year, Putin had warned that sharing long range missiles with Ukraine would breach a serious red line. Putin issued a stark warning to the West: refrain from enabling Ukraine to target Russian territory with your long-range missiles. For, such actions would be regarded by Moscow as "direct participation" of NATO countries in the conflict in Ukraine.

Source: Putin: lifting Ukraine missile restrictions would put Nato ‘at war’ with Russia / The Guardian

Also check BBC.

As the transition happens, one would assume that the current regime would gracefully hand over things to the new one and exit without complicating matters.

The Gift of War

Well, just as Trump is in the midst of drawing up his "anti-war" cabinet, the Biden administration is getting ready to breach that red line.

And, in Putin's words - NATO is getting ready to directly participate in the attack on Russia.

Now, while the US President does have significant autonomy in military actions, whenever major policy changes are to be committed, specifically requiring funding or long-term commitments they would often need congressional approval. For instance, declaring war or significantly expanding military operations would require legislative backing.

This is one of those occasions. For all practical purpose, the adversary considers it as an act of direct war by US.

There is a law to obviate this.

One is not sure if that will be followed because of the ambiguity of the situation despite the drastic ramifications.

Source: Biden allows Ukraine to strike inside Russia with missiles / BBC

Where does this leave the world?

For one thing, no President's term can go beyond noon time on January 20th.

The 20th Amendment explicitly states that the terms of the president and vice president end at noon on January 20th. After that, the president-elect assumes office, or, if no president-elect is determined, the Speaker of the House or another official in the line of succession becomes acting president. (Source: Reagan Library)

So using this as a means to extend the term is simply not a possibility.

What may happen is a "gift of war" from the old regime to the new.

Unless the incoming regime can push the Congress to block such a major policy change.

That would set the incoming government on slippery slope.

The all important question will be: Is this act enough for Russia to escalate matters when regime change is so close? The follow up will be - is this all that the current administration has planned in the steps to escalate things? Can they and will they bring things to a point where Putin has no option left?