India Journey and Geopolitics: Silence Within, Chaos Outside

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This one picture at the beginning defines India in many ways.

I started my journey, this time from Delhi. We took a train to Prayag for the Mahakumbh experience, and in the evening, we landed.

Mahakumbh experience was what it was - incredible, energizing, and reinvigorating. But what has stayed with me is something else.

By the time we were ready to leave for Prayag, the stampedes—one in Prayag and the second in New Delhi Railway Station (where we were to board our train)—had already happened.

The pressure obviously was immense on us to abandon our plan.

We didn't. Thankfully.

The police took simple but very effective measures at the New Delhi Railway Station to reign in the masses and crowds. The Vande Bharat train arrived, and people exited. The new passengers were kept at bay via announcements, and then, after the cleaning, we boarded the train. The train was good except for the toilets.

As we were entering the train, there was—as is always in India—immense pressure to enter the train, find a place to sit, and put the luggage on the rack as fast as possible. One family was taking too long, and there was a rude verbal altercation between them and the entering ones. After a lot of heated exchanges, they moved on. Later, I saw the guy from one of those families go to the place where the other family was.

I was worried about what could happen now!

The guy went over and started helping them to put their luggage in the racks.

Everyone realized that pilgrimage was a collective undertaking.

On our way to the Mahakumbh grounds the following day, we saw huge crowds going towards the river banks for a dip and returning from it.

Their preparations, luggage (the contraptions of bags and cans), and body structures (some old, some overweight, and some very lean) did not always lend themselves to a comfortable walk. But they walked at least 10-20 km just to get to the river bank.

Some were going towards the river bank. Others were returning from it.

Purposefully. Determinedly.

There was no complaint. There was no wavering of purpose or intention.

Everyone was walking so one did.

Fortunately or otherwise (from a pilgrimage standpoint), we got access to a 'VVIP' car. That enabled us to get faster access to the very bank itself than we had imagined.

An old lady was finding it tough to walk, so our elderly family member stopped the car and picked her up to drop her off at the final destination. "How would your family members know?" he asked. I have a mobile, so I will call them, she announced. No one knew each other, but we had an enriching discussion.

One knew that the Caste System, divisions of languages, Shaivism vs. Vaishnavism, etc., were all orchestrated from outside. That inherent sense was there in one. But the propaganda and narratives that had been blurted out loud and repeated even louder have taken up their own place in the minds of the lazy.

At the Mahakumbh, all those narratives found their way to where they deserved. In the dust under the feet of the crowds.

When the dip happened, it seemed as if it was a culmination of many lifetimes of yearning. Something in me connected to the ageless spiritual ethos - even when hundreds were in that area.

The connection with the wisdom that allowed us all to be linked to a yogic tradition promoting well-being probably defines the Indian civilization.

What is India? This is what one grapples with in such situations.

Between these extremes lies the ethos of India. India does not provide you answers. It provides you with contradictions for everything that you held dear to question yourself. The most deeply held beliefs are challenged. And in that self-questioning, it may so happen that you stumble upon the path to self-awareness. To know "who" is asking the questions.

This reply by PM Modi to Lex Fridman is very beautiful.Listen to it closely. (AI dubbed it in English based on PM Modi's Hindi answer.)

Let us understand it another way.

My next engagement was Geopolitics.

On March 2nd, I shared the stage with top geopolitical minds at the Alternate Media conference (organized by Gayatri Mishra). Mr. Kiren Rijiju (Minister of Parliamentary Affairs) inaugurated the conference, which was graced by top minds from the best think tanks, the Police, and the military leadership in India.

I was very honored to chair and moderate the session on Geopolitics and its Future Impacts on India. The cast on the stage was stellar, and the discussions were highly enriching.

Here are some photos from the panel discussion.

The folks on the stage from left to right were:

Major General Rajiv Narayanan, AVSM, VSM (Retd.), Visiting Fellow and Strategic Analyst, working with think tanks like United Service Institution of India (USI) and Centre for Joint Warfare Studies (CENJOWS)

Lieutenant General Raj Shukla PVSM, YSM, SM, ADC (Retd.), Member, Union Public Service Commission (UPSC), former Commanding-in-Chief, Army Training Command (ARTRAC) a top training and think-tank Indian Army organization.

Yours truly.

Dr. Arvind Gupta, ex-Indian Foreign Services officer, ex-Deputy National Security Advisor for Govt of India, and Director, Vivekananda International Foundation [a top Geopolitics think-tank in India]

Giridhar Mamidi is currently the state vice president (Telangana) of the think tank Pragna Bharati and the former CFO of Google India and ADP India.

The panel discussed the challenges India faces from major powers like China, the US, Europe, and Russia. What will the new world mean for us all?

The world is in a chaotic scenario right now, and it is not easy to discern which way things will go.

One thing is clear - the Heavens and the Gods of yesterday are falling.

The Syrian Massacres and Elites' Old Methods

Just a few weeks back, Tulsi Gabbard was grilled and made out to be a villain because she had the "temerity" to meet Bashar al-Assad in January 2017. (Source: Tulsi meets Assad/AP)

Why? Because the elite in Washington DC and the American news media (working in tandem?) had so proclaimed. Never mind that they constantly do so when they have to wage a war for earning profits (Incubator babies of the 1st Iraq War, WMDs of the 2nd Iraq War and Gaddafi's characterization to usurp Libya's gold). So pardon us here but why should the ordinary person around the world believe the belligerent American elite and their lies?

Their lies were exposed when the new Syrian regime of Jihadis installed by the Americans and the West went about committing genocide in open daylight. The world was watching - while the Western media indulged in either prevarication or outright ignorance.

Thankfully, this time, the US Department of State called it out correctly.

Make no mistake: an entire generation of new Jihadis is being built from the ground up. And the Western media and the elites are very comfortable with it. Here is, for example, a horrifying video that shows a Syrian child, no older than ten, chanting calls to murder innocent minorities—indoctrinated with violence from a young age.

“Oh Alawites be patient, we come to slaughter you. Without compromise, we have come to slaughter you.”

And that is what these Syrian Islamist Jihadis engaged in. A Syrian actress shared what happened there.

Meanwhile, Russian President Putin, who also has been a special target of the American belligerent elite, shares very clearly the reason for the West's wealth and prosperity - theplunder of other nations.

You can read this for more information.

Putin shares how the Western elites have been living off of leeching other people.

Listen to him in this video.

Despite how the clueless Western leaders have destroyed the global institutions - financial, economic, security, health and legal - by using unilateral powers to cancel others, they continue to double down.

Here, Rishi Sunak, former British PM, is threatening to use the Russian assets that have been frozen and to use them in Ukraine - in all probability against Russia.

Can you imagine the outrage if someone had done that to the British themselves?

Unfortunately, the Western elites and power structures have privatized global morality and usurped the very definition of what is moral around the world.

Understanding Trump's Victory

When I listened to the top geopolitical experts or others discuss the state of the US, I saw them analyze the situation in the US and its interaction with the outside world based on their assessment of Trump's personality.

Are the things happening in the US a factor of Trump and his personality?

Or is it something else?

To understand this one needs to realize why Trump won? Mind you, Trump won by a margin of 6 million votes. This was after Biden had won by 7 million in 2020. A swing of 13 million votes over the last election.

That is why it was a landslide.

How was a landslide achieved?

By people.

They did not treat this as an election. It was an uprising. A revolution if you will.

Yes, inflation and a fall in jobs were the overt main reasons. Behind them, however, were other reasons that pushed an entire generation of people to fight back.

Factors like misuse of taxpayers’ money, free-flow of illegals into the US, DEI excesses and Woke movement, rampant wars, complete lack of trust in media - pushed people to fight the combined might of the entrenched Deep State.

In that world, the elites and the Deep State (everyone from say Nancy Pelosi, Military Industrial Complex, Soros, Deep State, Managerial Class et al) would make decisions and money. At the same time, the ordinary people and their lives were compromised.

Check, for example, the difference in how the Americans suffering from the devastating North Carolina floods were treated versus the illegals who were housed in the legendary Roosevelt Hotel in NYC.

Regarding voting integrity, mail-in ballots have been a significant factor in discord between Republicans and Democrats.

The Republicans felt strongly that the 2020 elections were stolen.

The confidence in the 2024 election was higher overall in the country - from 67% to 75%.

The other major factor in shaping the minds of the American electorate was the primacy of the Global institutions in shaping and destroying (?) their lives.

From a time when a middle-class person could live comfortably to now, when middle-class families are struggling to live economically feasible lives, Americans have lost hope. Rising costs in areas like housing, healthcare, education, and now even food have made it impossible to live on a normal middle-class income in the US.

As of June 2024, 65% of middle-class Americans say they are struggling financially and don’t expect their situation to improve for the rest of their lives, according to the National True Cost of Living Coalition. (Source: CNBC)

The American dream has all but vanished. Right under the noses of everyone.

Manufacturing, services, and even decision-making were either outsourced or globalized. Middle America was reduced to a "have-been."

Manufacturing is a critical sector for American economic well-being. The value chains in the American economy that rely on manufactured goods account for 25% of employment, over 40% of gross domestic product (GDP), and almost 80% of research and development (R&D) spending in the United States. Yet U.S. leadership in manufacturing is eroding. U.S. manufacturing employment plummeted by one-third—and 60,000 U.S. factories were closed—between 2000 and 2010 (Bonvillian and Singer, Advanced Manufacturing: The New American Innovation Policies, MIT Press, 2018, 52, 265.) Only some 18% of the production jobs lost in the United States during the Great Recession were recovered in the following decade, and production output only returned to its pre–Great Recession levels in 2018. This hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing has been largely driven by international competition, particularly from China. China passed the United States in 2011 as the largest global manufacturing power in both output and value added. The nations have literally traded places: China now has 31% of world manufacturing output while the U.S. has dropped to 16%. The U.S. has not just lost leadership in low-price commodity goods: As part of its massive trade deficit in 2023 of $733 billion in overall manufactured goods, the U.S. ran a deficit of $218 billion in advanced technology goods. Declining U.S. manufacturing has sharply curtailed a key path to the middle class for those with high school educations or less, thereby exacerbating income inequality nationwide. As a country, we are increasingly leaving a large part of our working class behind an ever-advancing upper middle class. (Source: "Restoring U.S. Leadership in Manufacturing" / Federation of American Scientists)

That in itself is the basis for the yearning to "Make America Great Again." One fallout of that yearning to ensure that if America has to grow economically, then it should put a levy on others for selling to this great country. And so the push for tariffs vs taxes. Last time when America was this powerful was around the Second World War.

America was great. It no longer is. That is the realization of most Americans today. And it spans beyond just economics.

When you see President Trump's actions in terms of actions against certain organizations, they stem from that.

Let us look at one example that has not been discussed as much in the media in general.

Unvoicing of Propagandist America?

On March 14, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order targeting the United States Agency for Global Media (USAGM) among seven federal agencies deemed "unnecessary" by the White House. The order, directed these agencies to:

• Eliminate operations not explicitly required by statute.
• Reduce statutory functions and personnel to the legal minimum.

While the order did not explicitly use the term "shut down," its practical effect has been a drastic reduction in USAGM operations.

It obviously aligns with Trump’s broader agenda to shrink the federal government, a task spearheaded by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which has been instrumental in identifying cost-cutting targets.

But this move goes beyond just cost cutting. It goes to reign in a propaganda machine that has been rampant in disseminating one type of ideology. Yes, it targets other countries. But it has of late also been used by entrenched leftist establishments to carry out their political agendas.

What is USAGM?

The United States Agency for Global Media (USAGM) is a federal agency that oversees several international broadcasting entities, including:

• Voice of America (VOA): A multimedia outlet providing news and information in over 40 languages, intended to promote U.S. perspectives abroad. Employees received emails placing them on administrative leave with pay until further notice. They were instructed not to access work premises or internal systems. (Source: ​reuters.com)
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL): Focused on providing uncensored news to countries in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East where free press is restricted. Federal grant funding for RFE/RL was terminated, effectively halting its operations. (Source: ​wsj.com)
• Radio Free Asia (RFA): Targeting audiences in Asia with limited access to free media. Similar to RFE/RL, federal grants funding RFA were terminated, leading to concerns about the continuation of its operations. (Source: ​rfa.org)
• Radio and Television Martí: Aimed at delivering news to Cuba.
• Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN): Operating Alhurra TV and Radio Sawa to reach Arabic-speaking audiences.

Historically, these outlets were established to counter propaganda from adversarial nations and promote democratic values.

Over the years, the USAGM has veered into partisan territory, promoting left-leaning narratives. Recently, this has undermined conservative governments and viewpoints in regions like Central Europe. In fact, even within the US, conservative ideology has been under attack.

Immediate Impact

So, what has the executive order resulted in?

• Journalists Locked Out: As of March 15, 2025, VOA employees were placed on indefinite paid administrative leave. An email instructed them not to enter USAGM premises or access its systems, effectively halting broadcasts. Reports indicate that 1,300 VOA staffers were affected.
• Contract Terminations: Funding and contracts for RFE/RL, RFA, MBN, and Radio/TV Martí were severed. This included terminating agreements with major news services like the Associated Press, Reuters, and Agence France-Presse, which supplemented these broadcasters’ reporting.
• DOGE Oversight: Three DOGE staffers have reportedly been embedded at USAGM, scrutinizing its budget, social media, and operations. This reflects Musk’s hands-on role in slashing government spending, with DOGE already linked to cuts of over 100,000 federal jobs and the cancellation of numerous programs.

The current leadership at RFE/RFL is not happy with the Trump move.

That all sounds very great in theory.

Origin of Radio Liberty in Hitler's propaganda days

Do you know the origins of Radio Liberty in Europe?

Nazis had decided to use Muslims from Central Asian states to target Russia. They started a radio station to disseminate their propaganda. After Hitler's loss, that Radio was later refurbished - along with its officials - into Radio Liberty. This was also the time when the CIA was setting up the Muslim Brotherhood.

What was a tool with Hitler later became the mouthpiece of the CIA to unleash propaganda on other nations.

In recent times, the circle has come all the way. A media outlet that used to target communists, socialists, and leftists has been promoting leftist values in Europe. In Central Europe, some conservative leaders accused RFE/RL of amplifying leftist critiques of their governments, particularly on issues like judicial reforms or media freedom.

The thing that has not changed is animosity with Russia. The "pro-war narrative against Russia" is based on RFE/RL’s extensive reporting on Ukraine and Russian aggression. Even after Trump's election, it continued and was contrary to the policies pursued by the Trump administration.

The keys to America's future lie in this opposition by the erstwhile organizations and the Trump administration's terminal actions.

Competition Vs Competitiveness

As we saw, the flight of factories from the US to other countries like China all but decimated the American middle class.

The reaction to that destruction by the pre-Trump administrations from the American public is to levy tariffs on imports so capacities can be built within the US itself - thus boosting jobs.

But will that really happen?

One can fight competition when one is competitive within.

If you stop the competition when your own skillset and products are not competitive, society pays a significant social and economic price. India's economy before the 1990s was like this.

Let us just face it - the United States is not competitive enough anymore.

The population is aging. The laws surrounding starting a manufacturing unit are difficult to handle. People with skills aren't enough to run new factories.

More importantly, who will set up a factory for 3-4 years - until Trump is around? No one can create that quick a break-even!

So before one trashes the competition, isn't it essential to be competitive first?

That brings us to tariffs.

A country that is not competitive in manufacturing most consumer goods and other products cannot have its revenues come predominantly from tariffs.

To put it differently.

In this case, the combined impact of Trump's policies may be to push American allies into the hands of China and India.

Only time will tell when Trump's team has made the right decisions.

The Leadership Vacuum

One of the most significant factors for future impact on the global stage will be the presence of a leader.

When we look at these actions below, one can see that US was a bad leader.

• pushing illegals,
• propping China,
• blowing up Nord Stream, starting wars and executing regime changes,
• hurtling towards WWIII by attacking Russia

The need of the hour was to rectify the leadership that US was providing. Not to destroy the leadership position itself.

For example, Germany has been and will be an important economy and country in the EU going forward. In fact, it will go for substantial military equipment manufacturing as well.

If this goes on, Trump's actions will be pushing Germany and the US into an adversarial position. Something akin to pre-WWII scenario.

Is that workable for the US?

Throwing the baby out with the bath-water

This seems to be a consistent theme with the Trump administration's policies.

Why is he "running with the scissors" to use a colloquial expression?

Because he knows that post say at most 550-600 days, he may not have enough majority in the House and Senate to do what he can do today.

What will that mean?

If he could be targeted for assassination even before his election, imagine what he could face after he is no longer in power.

He knows his time will be up.

So before that happens, he wants to dismantle the very ecosystem and power structures that will come after him.

Let us, therefore, ask the most important question:

That is a pertinent question to ask.