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When you see Russia get into existential war over Ukraine, or Israel bomb Syria or India battle with Pakistan or Bangladesh, it is not because of some whim. It has a historical and geographical context. That is critical to understand for analyzing geopolitics.
Pakistan is a bankrupt country and even though now it has come to the brink of major economic default, it was always kept afloat and even prosperous at some point through manipulations and foreign help. In so many decades, it neither had any world class educational institutions nor any industry. Even though people drove expensive cars (as opposed to Ambassadors and Fiats in India), they were imported from abroad. Where is Pakistan today? This video will help us understand its precarious situation where it is hurtling to complete economic bankruptcy real fast.
Let us now look at what has really sustained Pakistan for so long?
Shameful history of US Aid to Pakistan
Irrespective of what US and the American nationalists may say – US has kept Pakistan, the originator and the main player in Islamic terror, not just afloat but even prosperous!
Right after India’s independence and Pakistan’s formation, US promised Pakistan a total aid of $67 billion (in constant 2011 dollars) between 1951 and 2011 ($78.3 billion between 1948 and 2016). Although the level of aid on yearly basis has gone up and down, but the aid has always been provided to Pakistan. Here is the historical picture from 1951 to the present. After the nuclear tests, the aid was the least but was still there.
Between 2002 and 2014, the assistance got impacted by the Kerry-Lugar bill (KLB) but the assistance did not stop.
Between FY2002 and FY2009, only 30 percent of US foreign assistance to Pakistan was appropriated for economic-related needs; the remaining 70 percent was allocated to security-related assistance. In the period since the KLB authorization (FY2010 through the FY2014 budget request), 41 percent of assistance has been allocated for economic-related assistance —still not a majority of total assistance, but the increase over the preceding period does demonstrate the renewed commitment to Pakistan’s development embodied by the legislation.
Here is the chart for the Annual appropriations.
For sending the money to Pakistan, many different programs/organizations have been used. Here is the breakup for the providing the Economic funding from 2010 to 2014.
As one can see that Pakistan has been getting millions in funding from the US. For what? Really its “Cooperation” and curbing the nuisance value. Pakistan creates its relevance by using its state-sponsored terror networks which create the air and situation of instability in the region leading to fear amongst the world powers. And it is THIS instability that it reaps rewards off of.
Cost of Sponsoring Terror
You see, in a country that is bankrupt and gets its sustenance via the foreign aid – Terrorism pays. And the cost to create terror isn’t much. Here is an excerpt from report by the Financial Monitoring Unit (FMU) in Pakistan titled “National Risk Assessment on Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing 2017”. It discusses the cost of terror activities and the budgets that these organizations have. They must know since they finance most of them.
“Annual operational budget of [these] terrorist organisations is from Rs 5 million to Rs 25 million. Average cost of operation per terror incident varies from Rs 0.5 million to Rs2.5 million depending on magnitude of incident,” the 45-page confidential report revealed.
In a country that is a haven for terror organizations, the total budget for the large players may be between $50 – $100 mn (something that even Christine Fair alludes to in the video below). Here is the list of the terror organizations operating within and out of Pakistan.
Depending on what an organization really delivers, the budget on average for these organizations could be between $8-15 mn, given that the list has big and small ones. Taking an average of $10 mn we are talking of a
total budget of $400 mnfor the total terror infrastructure that Pakistan sponsors
. And even in one of the worst years, Pakistan was getting an economic aid of close to $1 bn!
Now, I have heard some Pakistanis pooh-pooh the importance of US and foreign aid, but the fact is that 70% of the country’s export income goes towards ONLY its loan obligations. Almost the same amount goes towards the defense budget (Rs 1 bn and rising!). Pakistan, thus finds itself in a net negative territory heavily! In that situation, the moneys they get from foreign aid is keeping it together.. or almost so.
Why Pakistan Does Terror and US Keeps Funding it – Big Picture from Christine Fair
Now, let us put it all together and listen to the foremost expert on Pakistan – Christine Fair – on what Pakistan does and why.
Fair is extremely direct. US and India need to call the bluff of Pakistan. Terrorism is not done by non-State Actors but BY Pakistani establishment as a matter of state policy. What the world needs to do is to cross the territory of giving “plausible deniability” to Pakistan, even when it is obvious that there is none! Political correctness in the face of overwhelming evidence is proving to be the bane of peace in India and the world. Make no mistake, Pakistan’s fingerprints are on every terror attack that the world has seen. Even 9-11 was in some way orchestrated by Pakistan’s ISI (Pakistan – not Osama – was the Mastermind of 9-11 Attacks).
Unless there is clarity in the understanding of what is happening, there is no way that this state – Pakistan – which is a Terror State can be tackled. Specially when it uses its nuclear umbrella to blackmail the world!
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