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When you see Russia get into existential war over Ukraine, or Israel bomb Syria or India battle with Pakistan or Bangladesh, it is not because of some whim. It has a historical and geographical context. That is critical to understand for analyzing geopolitics.
Something is in the offing at the border in the air.
The Pakistani air space in Punjab and Sindh are stopped. Only flights over KPK and Balochistan. Which means either they are planning something in that area or they are expecting something to happen there. Look at the map below in this tweet.
And, this was not the first one. But the second one to be hit.
With the air space emptied out in Punjab, Thar and Sindh, and these attempts to penetrate with a drone in Kutch and Rajasthan, the chances are that they are planning something on that border perhaps.
That would be enlarging the sphere of war to a place other than Kashmir.
And, this can open up the option for Indian Navy to enter the fray very soon.
With continuous blackouts going on in Pakistan and large lines to get fuel for cars etc, the chances are that Pakistan is really running on last straws.
From the Indian side, PM Modi also hinted at more action coming very soon by saying that what happened on Feb 26th was not the final act.
What would it be is something that one has to see.
Pakistan on last straws?
That Pakistan is on the verge of not just losing the war, despite its misinformation blitzkrieg, but also having major domestic issues is obvious to any objective observer. And, if the situation gets more intense – as Pakistan’s drone attempts (two of them) and India’s shooting them down is concerned, alongwith the emptied out air-space, then it would stand to reason that at least in this conventional war we may be looking at something quite serious happening.
Is that why Captain Amrindr Singh is suggesting that a desperate Pakistan can use Nukes?
Yes,it can but the fact is that it hasn’t. For the entire escalation ladder as of yet, it has not been able to do that. So, its bluff has been called out. But Captain Amrinder Singh makes some sense. However, even that Nuke engagement is not a clear cut binary. They cannot unleash 20 nukes on India, as Musharraf suggested, in the first go. For if they go with one or two, India will unleash enough to finish Pakistan.
The idea is to go with a combination of all three – conventional beating up of Pakistan, attack on terror camps and offices, and economic measures (about that we will discuss in the next post).
But make no mistake – something big and significant is around the corner.
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