In 58 posts with close to 100k words, we shared a lot in 2024! Explore 2024’s biggest geopolitical shifts, cultural battles, and bold insights with Drishtikone’s year in review. See you in 2025! Happy New Year! Be safe!
When you see Russia get into existential war over Ukraine, or Israel bomb Syria or India battle with Pakistan or Bangladesh, it is not because of some whim. It has a historical and geographical context. That is critical to understand for analyzing geopolitics.
Dive into the shadowy world of the Deep State—its hidden structures, powerful networks, and the far-reaching impact on global events and control.
Violent Riots by Refugees consumed France and cities in Belgium and Switzerland. While these countries battled refugees destroying their societies, Poland and Hungary are battling legal and financial measures by EU for not accepting these refugees to begin with. How do you make sense of all this?
Some say they were riots.
I saw a war unfolding.
How words hide - and ensure - your own destruction!
Often the geopolitics does not reveal itself fully because many things are hidden behind the scenes for us to make full sense.
But when the information that could be behind the scenes seems so meaningless to the assured destruction of the very forces that may have a hidden agenda, then you start wondering.
Taking the scenario to its logical end, one finds refuge in the most outlandish conclusions.
When nothing seems to align, then you cannot run away from the truth staring at you.
As Sherlock Holmes said.
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Marine Le Pen, the conservative French politician recently stood up in the French Parliament to ask of the President Macron.
The speech went viral.
This was after the violence that was unleashed on France by the migrants as a payback for the killing of an Algerian migrant named Nahel by the police for driving away when he was detained for a traffic violation.
Riots over 5 nights unleashed an unprecedented destruction across France.
French employers’ lobby Medef estimated the cost of violence since the police shooting of Nahel, a 17-year-old of North African descent, last Tuesday at more than €1 billion ($1.1 billion), with 200 businesses looted, and 300 bank branches and 250 tobacco stores destroyed. The estimate covers businesses and doesn’t include damage to schools, town halls or community centers. (Source: French riots have cost $1.1 billion in damage to businesses and travelers are even canceling their vacation plans / Fortune)
And they spread outside France as well.
It is since spread to first Belgium.
A total of 64 people were arrested in the incidents that took place in Brussels on Thursday evening in protest over the shooting of a 17-year-old by a police officer in France. (Source: The Brussels Times)
And then over to Switzerland.
In the Swiss city of Lausanne, there were clashes between police and groups of protesters, most of them young – an echo of the profile of many of the rioters in France. Seven people were detained, most of them teenagers, after several shop windows in Lausanne were smashed. Around 100 people gathered on Saturday night in the centre of the city, which is located in the mainly French-speaking western part of Switzerland. Young people threw paving stones and at least one Molotov cocktail at officers, police said in a statement. “Echoing the events and riots raging in France, more than a hundred youths gathered in central Lausanne and damaged businesses,” the Lausanne police said in a statement. (Source: "Protests spread to French-speaking Switzerland and Belgium" / The Telegraph, UK)
In Lausanne the Swiss authorities brought out the tanks to fight the rioters.
Expanse of this violence is a terribly disturbing aspect. But even more worrisome is the manner and preparation.
What is most intriguing is that the rioters were using military grade weaponry.
Use of Military grade weapons is even more disturbing when you look at the extremely tough laws on gun control and blanket ban on military grade guns in France, unlike the US.
This isn't the first time military level weapons have been found with the Muslim population within the country.
In 2015, the attacks in France were carried out with very sophisticated weapons.
Here is a look at the November 2015 terror attacks in Paris that killed 130 people and wounded 494. The attackers, armed with assault rifles and explosives, targeted six locations across the city. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks. (Source: 2015 Paris Terror Attacks Fast Facts / CNN)
Rocket Launchers were seized in the country with the Islamists at that time.
Arrests, rocket launcher seized, as #France goes to 'war with terrorism' https://t.co/Z3zJKYsV2i #ParisAttacks pic.twitter.com/w2KfmPJCy1
— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 16, 2015
What did this all lead to?
Let us assess the damage to France, its property and the brand during these 5 nights of rioting.
Although the riots appear to have subsided, the mood in France is tense, many stores on the Champs Élysées remain boarded. The fashion calendar has also been disrupted. Céline canceled its menswear fashion week show, which had been due to take place on Sunday last week. (Source: "How much damage are French riots causing ‘Brand France’?" / Jing Daily)
France being a fashion major has seen its standing hit quite badly.
And now the overall list of the things that the rioters attacked and destroyed (Source: "France counts the cost of a week of riots and looting" / RFI)
As a result of the riots France Assureurs stated that 5,800 insurance claims have been filed so far. The total cost of these claims will be “at least 280 million euros". Many more claims are expected.
The Ministry of Justice shared the details of the action taken. Two particular insights from that reporting needs to be focused on.
As per a study by the Pew Research Center, if France were to stop all Muslim migration today (Zero Migration scenario), France would have Europe’s biggest share of population with 12.7%, up from 8.8%! (Source: "Europe’s Growing Muslim Population" / Pew Research)
The other scenarios with Medium and High migration would make the Muslim population percentage even higher. Medium = 17.4% and High = 18%
What do these figures and information indicate?
One of the significant aspect we just alluded to was an attack on the cultural landmarks in the country.
On the night of Friday, June 30, the Jean-Macé library in Metz, northeastern France, caught fire and burned to the ground in two hours. Nearly 110,000 documents went up in smoke. The day before, in Strasbourg (eastern France), a traveling cultural caravan was destroyed. The same evening, in Marseille (southern France), the Alcazar theater, converted into a public library in 2004, was the target of attempted arson. And on June 30, the entrance door and hall of the Opéra National du Rhin, also in Strasbourg, were both damaged, leading to the cancellation of the show that was scheduled for that evening. (Source: "Riots in France: Cultural venues suffered damage across country" / Le Monde)
The Association of French Librarians has stated that 40 libraries were targeted during the riots.
One particular comment from that article stood out for me. That was about how the people in France and authorities are seeing these riots.
State of shock and incomprehension? After 3 weeks of 2005 attacks, Charlie Hebdo, Samuel Paty, 2015 attacks if incomprehension is all that the learned have, then please know that you are in a race car hurtling down a sloped cliff with a 17000 feet drop and you want to have your foot on the gas all the way to the floor!
And this shows in the reaction of the French after these unprecedented riots in 2023!
There was a ban against protests or large gatherings in France because of the damage already done to the society. But thousands of French citizens came out and protested against the police, not the rioters, for killing of the 17 year old Arab teenager, Nahel without a word on the terrible damage to the social and individual infrastructure, business, art and life in France!
The garbled priorities amongst the French is the greatest ally and win for the rioters. An ally that will keep giving them the means, justification and the space for destruction of what was once a showcase of a liberal culture.
There was a tongue-in-cheek remark about the safety of France's nuclear arsenal by a Russian Senator after the French riots. An echo of the West's reaction to the Wagner Group coup attempt in Russia.
Russian Senator Andrey Klishas who suggested on July 1 that “EU leaders [should] discuss the stability of the political regime in France and check whether the nuclear arsenal is safe.” (Source: "French Police Claim They Are ‘At War’ with ‘Savage Hordes of Vermin’: Rioters Now Carry Military Grade Weaponry' / Military Watch Magazine)
This may sound like a joke today. But given the conduct of the rioters, it may be in the realm of possibility and a real nightmare scenario in future. After all, they did rob a gun store.
As the antagonism increases and the rioters gain in experience and sophistication, the targets and the tools will be upgraded.
The worst thing is that France may not be able to even save itself from that fate.
Why do we even say this?
For this, one has to look at what is happening to the countries which are defying the refugee problem and the entire power of Europe being unleashed on them.
In early 2018, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called refugees “Muslim invaders”. That set off a series of actions and reactions which should be studied in every geopolitical course. In any case, it will be in 50 years from now by many around the world when the dust on Europe's destruction has settled.
When BBC, in its characteristic 'in-your-face' antagonism, tried to insult and target Hungarians and the country's foreign minister relative to the migration policy decisions, he shared the commitment of his government's duty to its people and culture.
His fundamental argument underlined the fact that his government was getting targeted for having a sovereign policy that was not necessarily aligned to the European liberal sentiment that its leaders not just espouse but shove down everyone's throat.
Hungary’s parliament has passed a series of laws that criminalise any individual or group that offers to help an illegal immigrant claim asylum. The legislation restricts the ability of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to act in asylum cases and was passed in defiance of the European Union and human rights groups. Under the law, officially called “Stop Soros”, individuals or groups that help illegal migrants gain status to stay in Hungary will be liable to prison terms. (Source: "Hungary passes anti-immigrant 'Stop Soros' laws" / The Guardian / June 20, 2018)
What was passed by Hungary's legislature became a cause for European Commission to bring the full force of the EU Court of Justice down on Hungary. By 2021, they called it an infringement.
The European Commission opened an infringement procedure in July 2018 in a bid to force Budapest to reverse course. As the law stayed in place, the Commission ended up referring the matter to the EU's Court of Justice (CJEU). In a ruling published on Tuesday morning, the CJEU said Hungary "failed to fulfil its obligations" under EU law, including several directives that determine whether a third country is safe or not. (Source: "Hungary's Stop Soros law that criminalises helping asylum seekers 'infringes EU law'" / Euronews / November 17, 2021)
This is the beauty of the so-called liberal order. On the one side it argues for democratic rights and freedoms, and on the other it criminalizes a democratically elected representatives for not doing what this order tells you to be the right way. Whether you agree or not.
And this is a battle taken up by the European Commission which is directly targeted against the Hungarian Prime Minister and his government. For passing "Stop Soros laws".
Freezing €13bn (£11bn) of funds to Hungary!
That is how big the repercussions are for Hungary to simply have their own laws to safeguard their own way of life as they deem fit.
The passing of those laws with Soros as a proxy were enough to bring the entire force of European Union against Hungary in a sustained manner to eliminate the political forces in that country which had dared to oppose the Soros-ian Liberal Order that is intriguingly batting on behalf of the Islamist forces to fundamentally rupture the national fabric of European countries.
The pressure is consistent and being applied from various fronts.
On June 22nd, 2023 European Court of Justice has now ruled that Hungary violated the EU asylum laws because of the provisions of its "Stop Soros Law".
Budapest violated EU asylum laws by forcing people to first go to Hungarian embassies in Serbia and Ukraine before initiating a claim for international protection, the European Court of Justice ruled on Thursday (22 June). The Luxembourg-based court announced the verdict following a lengthy dispute first initiated by the European Commission against Hungary. (Source: "Hungary violated EU asylum law, rules top court" / EU Observer / June 22, 2023)
Why is this a problem for Hungary? The main lever against Hungary is its heavy dependence on EU for its trade.
Economically, Hungary is closely intertwined with the EU. Approximately 78 percent of its exports go to EU countries, especially to Germany, at 28 percent. Around 71 percent of imports come from EU member states, with 24 percent from Germany and another 9 percent coming from China. Landlocked Hungary – as a belated consequence of energy trade within the Communist Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) – is also highly dependent on Russian gas and oil supplies. However, the volume of these flows has decreased since the beginning of the Ukraine war. (Source: "Hungary and the EU: A deepening divide" / GIS online)
Given the power of Europe with respect to Hungary given its trade situation and the blackmail tactics of the European Commission, that country may be headed for a regime change scenario.
Poland is the other European country to refuse the diktats of the European Union with respect to the refugees.
Under the scheme, Poland was allocated 7,082 refugees (all from Syria, Iraq and Eritrea), the Czech Republic 2,691 and Hungary 1,294. All of the candidates for relocation were to be vetted by EU officials and then by member states themselves, who would receive €6,000 for each person they accepted. However, the new conservative government elected in Poland in October 2015, and which remains in power, subsequently refused to accept a single refugee from the quota. Hungary likewise took in none, while the Czech Republic admitted only 12. Consequently, the European Commission launched legal proceedings against the three countries. These reached their conclusion last week, when the ECJ ruled that the “member states had failed to fulfil their obligations under European Union law”. (Source: "We stopped EU “imposing foreign culture of Islam on us”, says Polish minister following ECJ ruling" / Notes from Poland)
In February 2023, the European Commission referred Poland to the European Court of Justice for an infringement procedure.
And then in June 2023, the European Commission launched another infringment procedure against Poland for a new law that prohibits Russian Influence in the internal security of Poland. As per the commission, the new law violated the principles of democracy, legality and non-retroactivity of sanctions, rights to effective judicial protection, and requirements of EU law relating to data protection.
Today, the European Commission opened an infringement procedure by sending a letter of formal notice to Poland for violations of EU law. This decision follows a thorough assessment by the Commission of the new law in Poland on the State Committee for the Examination of Russian influence on the internal security of Poland between 2007 and 2022, which is in force since 31 May 2023. (Source: European Commission)
Their argument is that this new law provides a very broad and unspecified definition of “Russian influence” and “activities”.
And this has come with financial teeth.
Poland was facing a record daily fines of €1 million ($1.1 million) since October 2021! These were cut by half by the European Union’s top court in April 2023 to a daily fine of €500,000 because of these laws passed in Poland.
The fine is not all that Poland stands to lose. The EU is also holding up €35 billion for Poland.
In the legal standoff between Brussels and Warsaw, EU authorities are also withholding the release of some 35 billion euros in pandemic recovery funds. (Source: "EU’s highest court rules that Poland’s justice reform infringes on bloc’s law" / PBS)
The question that one wonders about here is - Is Poland paying for standing up for its own sovereign policies and going against EU's mandate on accepting refugees?
In a Pew Research study in 2015, it was found that a record 1.3 million migrants had applied for asylum. Up from 700,000 in 1992.
50% of these asylum seekers came from three countries - Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
A record 1.3 million migrants applied for asylum in the 28 member states of the European Union, Norway and Switzerland in 2015 – nearly double the previous high water mark of roughly 700,000 that was set in 1992 after the fall of the Iron Curtain and the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency. Today, Eastern European countries like Kosovo and Albania still contribute to the overall flow of asylum seekers into the EU, Norway and Switzerland, but about half of refugees in 2015 trace their origins to just three countries: Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. (Source: Number of Refugees to Europe Surges to Record 1.3 Million in 2015 / Pew Research)
In 2016, German authorities woke up something strange.
130,000 of these asylum seekers - roughly 13% - were missing! Yes, missing! No one knew about their whereabouts.
They could have moved to another country or gone underground. If the latter was true, then Germany is sitting on another giant sinkhole, the depth of which it has no idea about!
As asylum seekers from Islamic countries which are unstable and have been taken over by radical extremists and terrorists throng the European borders only to go into hiding, the demographic trends are showing something remarkable.
Another Pew Research survey shows that by 2050, the Muslim population in some of the European countries could go up 3 times!
In Spain, the Muslim population has increased 10 times in the last 30 years.
And this will have an impact on the overall society in these nations. In some of these countries, Muslims will become a majority given the current situation and rate can go on.
Among three scenarios, the most likely mid-point migration scenario identifies 13 countries where the Muslim population will be majority between years 2085 and 2215: Cyprus (in year 2085), Sweden (2125), France (2135), Greece (2135), Belgium (2140), Bulgaria (2140), Italy (2175), Luxembourg (2175), the UK (2180), Slovenia (2190), Switzerland (2195), Ireland (2200) and Lithuania (2215). The 17 remaining countries will never reach majority in the next 200 years. ("When will European Muslim population be majority and in which country?" / Emerald insight)
The fact is that most of these Muslim refugees from Islamic countries are a major drain on taxpayers.
They are not educated, take low-income jobs compared to EU citizens, and are severely under-represented in high-end professions.
(Source: European Commission)
The EU natives are not giving births to more children, while the Muslim population within these countries is predicted to increase rapidly.
Looking at it another way, 50% of all European Muslims are under the age of 30, compared with 32% of non-Muslims in Europe. In addition, the average Muslim woman in Europe is expected to have 2.6 children, a full child more than the average non-Muslim woman (1.6 children). (Source: 5 facts about the Muslim population in Europe / Pew)
The differences are telling!
(Source: 5 facts about the Muslim population in Europe / Pew)
What does this tell you?
The incoming population is Less Educated, Lesser Inclined towards educated, has Lesser Income and more religiously entrenched.
They will replace the current generation of Europe which was the peak of the achievements that started when religion was completely separated from State and efforts for freedom and scientific achievements were considered the pinnacle of its civilization.
This will have only one result - complete social disintegration forced by a series of civil battles (and war?) based on religion! Even if both the sides do not come in with religion as the basis, just one side bringing it in as their chief victim card will appropriate the other to bring out theirs.
Imam Tawhidi has some prescient observations when it comes to the real malaise in Europe.
That Soros-led "Liberal Order" is intimately intertwined with the process of rapid Islamization and breakdown of the European cultural ethos has been underscored most directly and unambiguously in the case of Hungary.
In the case of Poland, the result was the same even when Soros was not mentioned in its policy decisions.
The new "Liberal World Order" is inexplicable.
Study after study is indicating that there is a problem in the Islamic world. Something that Imam Tawhidi explains clearly. However, there was a seminal and very instructive exchange between Ben Afleck and Sam Harris on the Bill Maher show that underlines the difference between those who confuse the masses that provide the protection ring for the killers with being helpless spectators.
Watch this video at 4:10 where Sam Harris discusses his theory of the "concentric circles". It explains the problem very effectively.
Let us explain it with first the data and then an illustration.
Here are the results of a Pew research done in April 2013.
Harris explained it in this way.
The Liberal Order has a method if you watch clearly.
When >90% of the Muslims in every society are against the LGBTQ community on a moral ground, then the society is facing more than a cute 'difference of opinion'. Specifically when this moral justification is being actioned by those these liberals create a "protective ring" around.
Anyone sees this problem.
The questions that we need to ask and ponder on are:
Think of it a bit more seriously.
The only outlandish yet logical argument that I have found is this.
Nothing else makes sense.
The Indian Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) is about enabling a technology-led model for a nation’s growth that is collaborative, equitable, and democratises opportunity at population scale.
Here Nandan Nilekani discusses the entire set of achievements in this area.
"India's internet is not built on advertising. It is built on Digital Transactions."
Insightful!
When you see Russia get into existential war over Ukraine, or Israel bomb Syria or India battle with Pakistan or Bangladesh, it is not because of some whim. It has a historical and geographical context. That is critical to understand for analyzing geopolitics.
Dive into the shadowy world of the Deep State—its hidden structures, powerful networks, and the far-reaching impact on global events and control.
While game-playing the future, one of the main flashpoints we came across, where the global conflict can start, was the Arctic. We look at it in complete detail.
North Korea launched its most advanced monster missile yet. China is readying its 'mysterious' amphibious ship. Russia is advancing in Ukraine while losing men. America goes to poll and civil uncertainty. Global economy is on the brink. What is coming? Let's game plan it.
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