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While game-playing the future, one of the main flashpoints we came across, where the global conflict can start, was the Arctic. We look at it in complete detail.
The premise and the mindset apparent in the new Trump team points to an interesting world out there. Things will not be rosy, but they will be very different. Very, very different.
The December 6 night meeting at Mani Shankar Aiyar’s house has been intriguing me. With so many high-powered people just under two weeks to the final results of Gujarat elections, it could not have been about that. It was about something else.
So think about it. Why would so many people who were at the helm in different areas (analysis of these characters) – and ostensibly selling and harming India in as many ways they could – come together? The cast included Journalists, ex-PM and economist, ex-VP who also has links with Islamist organizations, many former diplomats, ex-Army Chief, people with close connections with China and Pakistan. Some of these are blatantly pro-Pakistan and China, to the point of being treasonous. Others not so blatantly open, albeit their own interests and viewpoint matched those who are.
These people met an ex-Minister Khurshid Kasuri – an ex-Foreign Minister in Pervez Musharraf’s government and currently the Senior Advisor on Political and International Affairs and Chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s Task Force on Kashmir. Tehreek-e-Insaaf party in Pakistan is widely held to have been funded by the Pakistani Intelligence agency, the ISI and also has strong Jehadi leanings and connections.
The other Pakistani representative was Sohail Mahmood. Mahmood has been a career diplomat and known to be an ISI agent.
With so many foreign, defense and press affairs heavy weights, Gujarat was certainly not the main topic of discussion. It may have been discussed, but it could NOT have been the main topic.
Let us get a context of the meeting first. What would prompt this kind of meeting.
Nothing of this has been said ever, but to a discernible eye, it is pretty clear. The Kerry-Lugar bill had ensured that Pakistan could not have an Army coup. Army cannot rule Pakistan directly. In fact, for the funding to materialize, the Secretary of State of US must certify – the extent to which the government has oversight over the military budget, the military chain of command, strategic guidance and planning, and the promotion of senior military officers!
This has meant that there was a clear distinction between military and the civilian government and the latter was given more power, while the latter was put in the dock. This strengthening of power for Pakistan’s civilian government meant that not just is coup an impossibility in Pakistan, but civilian government has larger latitude to do things.
Pak Army and ISI pulls many strings in that country – the government, the businesses, the various organizations, the Afghanistan and Kashmir-oriented Jehadis. Until Kerry-Lugar, it could do what it needed with the government, if not directly in command via the coup. But one thing that Nawaz Sharif government has done is to provide the Indian government a far more space to maneuver its work in Pakistan, even when the Pak Army has been trying to curtail it.
Let me give a few examples –
No foreign minister and confusing signals to foreign offices: Even though a lot of work that is done in the foreign offices is handled by the ISI, yet, with the lack of a foreign minister – and a clear direction of the foreign policy from the center, there has been little to no threat to what India wanted to go. When Modi launched the blitzkrieg in every major foreign capital and conference, specifically the Middle East and Arab countries, it was to break the relationship between Pakistan and those countries. The link had to be broken. And it was. Of course, Pakistan handed India the opportunity and the space on a silver platter by first engaging and then distancing itself from helping the UAE and the Saudis in Yemen against Iran (Sunni/Shia dichotomy). But India did work the wheels to ensure that space for India as opposed to Pakistan. Result: In one year – from 2014 to 2015, there was a whopping 47% rise in the number of Pakistanis deported around the world. The figure in 2016 was 111,084 and in 2017 for the first 6 months itself, the figure was 87,165!! The maximum deportations being from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Malaysia. This means massive decrease in remittances (a major source of foreign exchange for Pakistan) and reduced impact in those societies. In the last 2 years, the UAE and Pakistan relationship’s realities have changed and Saudi Arabia has snubbed Pakistan.
Economy in a free spiral: From the loss of remittances, to the clamping of the US grants to tanking of exports and rising of the debt, Pakistani economy is now in a free spiral. There is a complete slide down now. The fact is that the Nawaz Sharif government has taken loans to ostensibly pay off loans and even those loans were used up. And the government has in the process put the highways, radio stations etc on the market as collateral. Installing a government that takes the country off the cliff while personally benefitting from it has largely helped bring Pakistan to its knees. And, the Pakistani Army can do nothing about it!
To say that Modi sought to work with Nawaz to limit the options with Pakistani Army on the one hand and push the Pakistani foreign engagement and economy down the spiral on the other will not be an exaggeration. As shrewd a politician as Modi is and as strong a view that he has had – and delivered (Surgical Strikes and Free hand to the Army) – stopping impromptu at Sharif’s daughter’s marriage could not have been just a coincidence.
Pakistani Army is currently scared and frustrated. With Trump on one end – who is tightening the screws for Pakistan specifically – and Modi on the other – who is going proactively after Pakistan – this are unchartered waters for Pakistani Army. Until now, they were able to buy off Indian politicians with money, women and gifts. Ideologically firm politicians – as the BJP government is – is quite an impossibility.
Until now, Pakistani ISI almost had a free run in India.
Fake currency notes were being pumped in by the billions, politicians and NGOs were being bought and used, the highest in the Indian government were helping them create a favorable narrative of a fake Hindu terror and downplay the Islamic terror while arresting those like Lt Col. Purohit who were spying on LeT. Also, check this video where Ajit Doval is sharing how Congress government jeopardized the national security of India.
Forget a government that lay easily on its back to do the bidding of ISI, the Indian government now in power is one which is proactively going after the Pakistani terror network and whole establishment apparatus to destabilize our country. Worse for the Pakistanis, the Indian government has reached out to the Balochistan movement and is working with them to thwart the designs of the Pak Army and the Chinese to (1) use Balochistan for Gwadar in CPEC and (2) to do a genocide there.
That has meant that the most fundamental reason for Pakistan’s Army is being hit and hit hard. From the 1948 Kashmir attack to 1965 to 1971 and then in Kargil, Pakistan has managed to turn military defeats into geo-political advantages and even victories on the basis of trickery and politics that had as much of backdoor work as chutzpah. Otherwise, there is no way one can ever explain the zero takeaway from the return of the 90,000 prisoners of war after 1971. For a country with a leadership for over 70 years that was defined by pusillanimity, India now has a leadership that is not just beating back the Pakistani Army’s aggression, but even entering that country and attacking at will (Surgical Strikes)!
Money drying up, logjam on political power and aggressive hit from the Indian state and Army – are putting the Pakistani establishment in a tizzy. Even China is abandoning its projects in Pakistan and pulling the Pak Army up!
Pakistan is in an emergency mode right now. It needs some respite – specially for the Pakistani Army. It can do precious little in the US on Trump, although must be hoping as hell that he gets impeached. But with a willing set of opposition which could bend the national security apparatus and make life easy for the Pakistani terror network, it is time to engage with them. Pak Army’s surrogates – the Hurriyat – have been defanged anyways. Congress and its flunkies – who have been nurtured and financed all these decades for just this time when it is out of power – will be more than ready to partner with it given how their own relevance is now almost gone.
That is where this
meeting at Mani Shankar Aiyar’s Housecame in. This meeting was to in all probability chart out a way to use INTERNAL SABOTAGE in every area of national life possible.
In the coming months, we will see an unleashing of a campaign in media – both Indian and global – to discredit Modi and India while rehabilitating Pakistan and its establishments. Indian journalists have fallen over each other to do so in the past – Pankaj Mishra wrote a piece where he gushed, despite the facts of Khan’s Jehadi connections! A piece of sycophantic writing that would have done justice to young school girl having a crush on Imran Khan!
Five consequences I see coming:
Infiltration and Coordination with Moles inside the Forces: That is the job of Ex-Army chief Deepak Kapoor. He will be facilitated by specific inputs from ISI which would have already planted some moles. The ex-General will start to activate officers who were close to him to get things moving. These actions will be to help Pakistan know of India’s plan in Kashmir, things like Surgical Strikes, new power structures and location of weaponry. This will be done for two reasons – (1) to hit India hard and strong and (2) to embarrass the Indian government by sabotaging important missions after a terror strike.
Bringing together Diplomatic Fire power: For Pakistan and Congress’ goals of getting their “good old days” back, it is imperative that Modi Government is embarrassed and humiliated. So, the connections and networks of the Indian Diplomats in that meeting and those of Pakistan will be mined to create a situation that will thwart actions by India and used internally to humiliate the government. The Interpol action on Zakir Naik may be one of those early low hanging hits.
Activating the Jehadi Machinery for high level hits: One of the things that would have been at the top of the agenda for many in that meeting – probably would be – to hit high level targets. Both people and landmarks. Specifically Hindu related. There have been reports in the papers recently on how there has been a grave threat on lives of PM Modi and UP CM Yogi Adityanath. This may become even more serious now!
A recent alert by the intelligence agencies has indicated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath could be on the radar of some London-based Kashmiri terrorists. According to the alert these terrorists have infiltrated Kashmir Valley and will try to travel to UP in small groups in a train. The location of these terrorists are unknown. Highly-placed intelligence sources said this threat perception has been conveyed both to Special Protection Group (SPG) responsible for the PM’s security and officials supervising UP CM’s security arrangements.
Uptick in Espionage Activity: With the tightening of the Indian intelligence apparatus, there is little space left. So, going forward, there will be an extra effort from Pakistan to “break into” Indian security establishment. Just today, an attempt to honey trap Indian consulate members in Pakistan has been uncovered and thwarted!
Another Award Wapasi Campaign May be Around the Corner: Given the people involved in the whole effort, the old tricks will be used in fresh new ways to further hit at the credibility of Modi. Specifically to create a “precedence”. Something that can be profitably used by the journalists and “activists” abroad – on Congress and ISI payrolls – to hit India.
It is imperative that Modi and Doval are careful and thorough in everything that is done. The intelligence has to be of top quality and the personnel involved cannot be trusted blindly. This is an all out game of attrition and aggression. And, it is important that every power is used – Social Media, Local Media, Law, Police, Intelligence, Army and Espionage.
As both Congress and Pakistan “go for the kill”, since they near their complete annihilation, it is not just important to defend but also to attack. Make them so busy in their internal challenges and turmoil that they cannot take themselves out of the chaos!
India’s march cannot and should not suffer. The time for Pakistan’s terror ways is over. It is time to close this chapter forever. Pakistan and Congress – irrespective of fiends like Khurshid and Mani Shankar Aiyar – should see the last of their structures in the next 5-10 years. The world – specifically the South Asia – will be a much safer place
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