Where is BJP and India Headed?

A Zen master was taking a little stroll through a forest with a young pupil. He stopped at a tiny sapling of a tree which had sprouted recently.

"Pull that sapling up," the master instructed his student. The young man just used his fingers to take it out.

The master then looked at another one - a much better-established sapling of a few weeks. "Take that out as well".

With little effort, the student yanked it out - roots and branches.

As they went further, they came to a tree as tall as the student. "Now this," instructed the teacher.

The student tried his best with all his might and using stones and sticks finally managed to take it out.

As they moved forward, the Zen Master then pointed to the mighty oak tree.

"Now take that out."

The student knelt and bowed in front of the master and said. "I am sorry I cannot take that one out."

"This," the Zen Master said " is the nature of problems and also habits in our lives. The older they get, the bigger they become. The deeper their roots grow and the harder they become to uproot. Some of those become so big and their roots so well established that you do not even attempt to take them out."

The mighty oak with its great edifice and deep roots cannot be pulled out by hands. You need an axe and heavy machinery to pull out the roots and trunk. To kill the roots, you may have to spread poison so nothing remains.

Close your eyes and introspect.

Are you being uprooted?

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Indian Elections and Democracy

A loss in a democratic election is the final sum of the votes. In an ideal world, votes should reflect the mood of the nation's voters.

But that is possible -

1. when the mood is expressed by the act of voting
2. voting is allowed properly and not suppressed
3. voting is properly accounted for

The game in today's global democracies is played at these three points.

1. Ground Game
2. Voter Suppression
3. Voting Fraud

It is the story in the US, Europe, and Latin America and has been the case in India since the country became independent.

In fact, the greatest election fraud was the election of India's first Prime Minister.

To counter this subversion, the narrative mills wrote tomes on how the messiah of democracy had arrived and was to save India and Indians from tyranny. A man who ruled tyrannical came to be known as the ubiquitous "Chacha" (Uncle - father's brother) for all Indian kids.

Patel was robbed of the right to be India's first Prime Minister that he should have gotten and India was robbed of a great leader that it should have had.

The very foundation of the Indian republic was kept on a lie and deception.

You see, it does not matter whether you are a god incarnate in a democracy. If you do not have the mandate, you should not be able to rule. Period.

But that is not how it has worked in India.

Every rule and every tenet of democracy, justice, freedom and basic decency was torn to pieces since the time of independence.

If the whole game was not about democracy, justice, and the rest of it, then what was it all about, one would wonder.

Power.

There are two ways to view the world.

Realism Vs Moralism

A Realist looks at politics and understands that the states and politicians act primarily in their self-interest, with the main goal being the acquisition and preservation of power. A Moralist looks at the political arena and wants his political actions to be guided by ethical principles and moral values.

Now, one should look at these constructs not as absolutes but as two ends of a spectrum.

What one needs to add this spectrum is the state of the society. Is it at war or not.

You can wield around moralism as much and as high as you want when everything around you is peaceful and pacifist. However, if the world is at war then bringing moralism to the table is your weakness.

Even worse is when at this time, there is a mismatch between where you are in terms of Realism Vs Moralism and where your own followers are.

Most importantly, society is not how you perceive it to be. But how your adversary defines it as.

In such a war, your own morals aren't your strengths. But your weakness.

It's worse.

The more steadfast you are about some ambiguous set of high-road morals that have no value on the ground where warfare is being fought, the more lethal your morals are against you in the hands of a crafty adversary.

Saul Alinsky laid it out very clearly,

Now, close your eyes and come face to face with the spectacular worthlessness of your moral stances.

Whatever moral standards you have, your enemy is working to make you live up to them.

All the way to your grave.

Read these two quotes. Same year. Two different people.

Symmachus was called the “Last Pagan Orator” who unsuccessfully pleaded with the Christians for the "pagan" altar in the Roman Senate to not be broken.

"St. Augustine" went on to get a legendary status within the Christian theological circles.

One man was at war. The other was a pacifist with his morals as his perceived strength.

Only one man and his mission (of annihilating heathens) remained relevant and successful.

Such was the attack that the "pagans" were justifiably burned on the stakes with complete pubic acquiescence.

The question that you have to ask daily. Every day and every moment of your day is - Are you the contemporary Symmachus?

So first thing you need to learn is to face the truth the way it is.

Sans moral judgments and high horse.

With these ground rules of how the world is, and not how it ought to be in your or my mental construct, we will discuss where Indian power dynamics is today and where it is headed.

India's Greatest Prize

We had discussed in our previous newsletter "The Geopolitical Consequences of a DeDollarized World" about how the gold and wealth from India had funded the Industrial Revolution.

India's strength of gold has always attracted marauders. Plunderers with just one aim - to loot and get rich.

As has been the case, India's gold is again its greatest strength and albatross around its neck.

Overall, India's official gold reserves are 822 tons.

As of March 2024, the RBI's total gold reserves stand at 822.10 metric tonnes. (Source)

This puts Indian gold reserves at #9 globally.

But that is not the real story. The story is gold but it is elsewhere.

The World Gold Council (WGC) has been looking it for years. The Indian household gold reserves have now grown to 27,000 tonnes.

Indian households may have accumulated up to 25,000 tonnes of gold, thereby retaining the tag of the world's largest holders of the metal, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). "We conducted a study two years ago and found the household stocks at around 23,000-24,000 tonnes. Now, the stocks may have touched 24,000-25,000 tonnes," Somasundaram PR, managing director (India) of the London-headquartered WGC, told The Financial Express. The value of this holding is roughly about 40% of India's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in FY19. (Source: "Indian households have stocked up to 25,000 tonnes of gold: World Gold Council"/ Business Today)

The temple gold is another area that has many modern-day marauders salivating. It is anywhere from 5,000 tonnes to 10,000 tonnes.

What does this mean?

Here is the calculation.

That is the real booty that we are looking at.

Now add the Temple gold holding which could be as high as 10,000 Tons and we are looking at 100% of India's GDP in just household savings and Hindu temples' reserves as gold.

Of course, the calculation by the Business Today author is overinflated, but the message is bang on. It reflects the sentiment of many who look at the temple's "community property" as a means of investment and profiteering.

"Gold mobilization" is one phrase used for usurping private and community gold from the Hindus.

"Wealth Redistribution" in the garb of income equality for the poor is another.

That is why when in the run-up to the 2024 election, Rahul Gandhi raised the idea of "wealth redistribution" it had a certain history and context.

Using SCs, STs, and OBCs while mentioning "minorities" is an old way of camouflaging what the Congress Party has been sharing in trickles. Undeniably though.

Dr. Manmohan Singh first shared the intent to give Muslims the first share in India's "wealth" in December 2006 and then clarified that statement in April 2009.

He stated it unambiguously.

However, in December 2006, in the official Press Release, the former PM and his team resorted to the time-tested SCs, STs, and OBCs trick with "minorities" hidden in there somewhere. Despite this, in the April 2009 video above, Dr. Singh was very clear.

Now let us look at a statement from PM Modi that became significant.

Here is what he said. Listen to it slowly and more than once.

Mangalsutra had a deeper context. Congress Party has not just favored one community but even gone on to give special privileges to terrorist groups like the Rohingyas who have been involved in Hindu genocides.

Why are Rohingyas so dangerous?

In India, for example, they have been collaborating on terrorism with Al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taibba, a banned Pakistani terror organization.

In 2017, an Al Qaeda operative had been arrested in Delhi near Vikas Marg on the tip-off from the Special Cell of the Delhi Police.  Shauman Haq was in India to set up a base in this country for the Rohingya Jihad.

“He came to India to set up base in Mizoram, Manipur and send people to Myanmar, basically espousing the cause of Rohingyas,” claimed P Kushwaha, DCP Special Cell. Earlier on Monday, the Supreme Court said that Rohingya Muslims were “illegal” immigrants in the country and posed “serious national security ramifications”. The affidavit submitted by the Union government in the Supreme Court said that the fundamental right to reside and settle in any part of the country was available to citizens only and illegal refugees cannot invoke the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court to enforce the right.  (Source)

In 2014, Khalid Mohammad was arrested from Hyderabad who had a connection to the Burdwan blast.  He was working with LeT to train Rohingyas in Myanmar for terror attacks.

But it is the actions of Rohingyas and their extreme hatred of Hindus in their own home that have largely been unreported and not discussed.  Let us look at what Amnesty International, hardly sympathetic to any Hindu cause, says about the genocides of Hindus by the Rohingyas in Rakhine.

So when Modi underscores the upholding the rights of the "ghuspaithias" (illegal trespassers) while linking it to redistribution of Hindu wealth (which is what it predominantly is within Households and Temples) - he was not off.

But many Hindus did not like that.

A fact that is as transparent as day was not palatable to the group that is being set up to be the victim of these shenanigans.

How more spectacularly could Saul Alinsky have wished his rule of making the enemy live up to their own book of rules would have worked out?

The adversary who intends to set the Hindus up will have ensured he lives to kill another day.

Because the Hindus have obediently worked hard to live up to their own rule book, their lives, their savings, their livelihoods, and their future generations be damned.

When Robert Clive and the subsequent British leaders looted India's Gold, what went out of the lives of Indians was not just the Gold and wealth. But every ounce of freedom, justice, and well-being.

The Elections and the Aftermath

The Elections in India are over.

BJP did not perform as spectacularly as it had been projected to be performing by the exit polls.

It nevertheless formed the government with its NDA coalition partners.

This situation is being viewed by the opposition parties in the "INDI Alliance" as an "opportunity,"

Here is one exchange between the BBC and Sachin Pilot, the Congress General Secretary for Chhattisgarh. He seems to be suggesting that coalition partners may not remain with the BJP for long.

Lalu Prasad Yadav has done what he does best - make wild and rambunctious claims. Sometimes it is difficult to know whether he does that because he believes in them or just wants others to believe in those nonsensical things by putting them the way he does.

All this is interesting.

But not really alarming or even significant.

Every party and political adversary works to weaken the others and gain power. That is the nature of the beast called power.

My Learnings

More than that, what has happened is the onslaught of PsyOps type of narrative building across the country. They are being shared as "explanations to why certain cities and regions were lost" but carry half-truths bandied as the real reasons (wink wink) for the below-par performance by the BJP.

Let us look at some of them.

Ayodhya

• Making the Ram Mandir meant taking away the lands of many without proper compensation
• All the local businesses have suffered and outsiders - specifically the Gujaratis - have taken over
• The temple is being fashioned into a tourist spot and the spiritual heritage has been sidelined
• Shri Ram is not that important for anyone outside of Ayodhya. The outpouring during the Ram Mandir inauguration notwithstanding.
• The people of Ayodhya are to blame because they are always like that - "Look what they did to Sita" jibe being the most popular.

UP

• Yogi has not really done much. The UP people don't like him and will ensure he loses in the next elections
• "What has bulldozer action achieved?" No real development.
• There is a rift between Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath. Yogi had sent 35 names of people he wanted to field in UP which was rejected by Amit Shah.
• The Central BJP team wanted to clip Yogi's power in UP but ended up almost destroying the BJP in UP.
• Amethi: Smriti Irani is a haughty and vain person. She has not done anything for the Amethi people other than just going there.

Maharashtra

• The addition of Ajit Pawar from NCP was a major blow to the cadres as they were asked to fight for the people they had opposed their entire life.
• Devendra Fadnavis's power has been clipped and he has not been able to perform in Maharashtra
• No one likes Udhav Thackeray or Sharad Pawar but they have done better because of a lack of action from the BJP cadres

Overall and Modi personally

• Modi is a haughty and proud person who does not care for the ordinary people.
• His decision to lead the Ram Mandir "Prana Prathistha" as opposed to some priests shows he thinks he is "God" himself. (Never mind that there are numerous mathas and groups and to choose one amongst them would have meant an uprising and chaos)
• Modi's two remarks: The Mangalsutra and "I am not Biological" - were (i) in bad taste (a classic example of "using the rule book against them") and (ii) Modi thinking he is God

The list is endless.

There is a conspiracy theory for every question you might have. There is a seemingly naive and linear moral argument for everything.

There are a few problems in most of these assertions and arguments I have shared above that are proliferating the mental mindscape in India currently.

Only the BJP is being subjected to the moral and semantic high standards that others are not even evaluated on.

For example, I half-jokingly confronted a friend who was so put off by the Ajit Pawar addition that he did not vote at all (though he was a BJP supporter)!

That kind of linear moral argumentation from someone well-educated and intelligent did not make much sense to me.

Concerns for BJP and Modi

But there are reasons to be wary of for BJP in general and Modi in particular.

Let us review my list of things that should concern Modi and his constituency.

Missing Local Candidates and Involvement of Cadres

Quite simply, the BJP's way of fighting elections is to milk Modi's image. The local cadres have learned to do nothing more than take selfies and become social media champions while reflecting on Modi's glorious image.

That translated into a lack of local understanding, touch, and even interaction by many (if not most) BJP local candidates.

A substantial number of them did not even bother to campaign or work with the local BJP and RSS karyakartas (cadres).

In a sharp and insightful piece titled "Conversation for Course Correction" in the RSS magazine "The Organiser", thinker Ratan Sharda shared a very interesting analysis of where things went wrong.

The BJP candidates did not even deign to work with the RSS workers. Now, RSS workers do not necessarily campaign for the BJP in the normal scheme of things. They work to get people to vote. If asked by specific BJP candidates they work with them to share their message.

This relationship has always worked to boost the relationship and clout of the BJP and also help RSS do its social upliftment work.

This kind of shrugging off of RSS cadres in the election campaign was almost underscored by the BJP national president JP Nadda.

The questions that Modi-Shah combine needs to ask themselves are:

1. Is this setting aside of RSS by the BJP a unilateral move?
2. Is this the way of things to come? Because, the social-spiritual grooming of the BJP cadres was always done via the discipline of service and humility instilled by the RSS training. Are the future BJP cadres and leaders going to be devoid of the ideological underpinning that has differentiated them in the eyes of nationalist Indians?

Most importantly, the Hindus in general are looking at this new development and wondering:

That begs the question - is the Modi-led BJP group working for or against an ecosystem that works for the Hindus globally?

This is critical.

Serious analysts aligned to BJP ecosystem are asking the same question.

For example, Pradeep Singh, a serious and insightful commentator on Indian politics, shares how in a bid to appease the minorities (something that Modi would argue against) Modi has sidelined his own constituency - the Hindus.

You see, there is a difference between the mission of a government and a political party.

Government should work for all.

A Political Party, however, has its core constituency and an ideology.

In every democracy, whether it is France, the UK, the US, or Australia, every political party has a core set of ideological principles it espouses. Based on those principles, different groups align with it or go against it.

BJP has its core principles which come from the time of Jan Sangh days. There was a clear distinction between the worldview of Jan Sangh and the Congress Party.

The bottom line in every ideological take of Jan Sangh and BJP is to hold the interests of India above everything else. In the case of the Congress Party, that was not always the case. In their worldview, the interests of a family reigned supreme.

Many times, like in the case of Khalistan and Bhindranwale, India's national security was subservient to the political interests of Congress and its leader, Indira Gandhi.

For those who have stood by the BJP, the RSS, and the Jan Sangh combine, the political maneuvering of the Modi-Shah combine specifically in the last 5 years has been baffling at the very least.

The Hounded Hindu and the Abandoned Cadres

This previous issue manifests in many different ways.

The greatest blunder by the BJP leadership was the abandoning of its cadres in West Bengal.

These are the cadres within BJP that still work. Despite the atrocities against them!

Those who voted for or stood for BJP were singled out and targeted in West Bengal by the TMC.

Despite that, many cadres were still willing to work for BJP in this elections. On the assurance of Amit Shah. That the TMC goons who are committing unspeakable horrors against the people of the state - like in Sandeshkhali - will not be spared.

That never happened.

The cadres were thrown to the wolves.

Forget the cadres, the people in Bengal were left to fend for themselves in a scenario that promises to be a repeat of the partition time violence.

Watch this warning from BJP MP Saumitra Khan. He, a Muslim, is warning that Bengal is becoming an Islamic state!

There is a constitutional measure to deal with this complete breakdown of state machinery.

The Indian Constitution provides for the President's Rule, also known as State Emergency, under Article 356. This provision allows the President of India to take over the governance of a state under certain conditions.

If the President, based on the report of the Governor of the state or otherwise, is satisfied that the governance of the state cannot be carried out according to the provisions of the Constitution, the President's Rule can be imposed.

Situations may include the breakdown of law and order, political instability, failure of constitutional machinery, or no party securing a majority in the state assembly.

Also read - What is President's Rule?

When everyone knows and has suggested that normal political rule in the state of West Bengal has broken down, then why has the President's rule not been used.

Yes, there will be violence. Yes, the TMC cadres reminiscent of the Muslim League National Guards of the partition era are being groomed to take over Bengal. But the more delay that the government does to normalize the state and its polity, the stronger those forces will be.

Forget the Hindu or BJP constituency, it does not make sense from the National Security standpoint.

Of all the omissions and commissions by the Modi-Shah combine and the BJP leadership, the complete silence in Bengal will turn out to be the gravest in the end.

Growing Corruption

Despite the fact that at the highest level, corruption has come down drastically, the scenario just below the top level is as abysmal as it was before.

Yes, Direct Bank Transfers (DBT) are a great way to reduce the middlemen. But those middlemen - MLA's men - are sitting outside the bank when one goes to withdraw the money.

In one case, while a person received Rs 10,000 for a toilet, Rs 8000 was taken away by such local BJP goons. Toilet never happened.

You see, at the local level, it is the same crop. Over the years, everyone who has ever fought elections or been part of the larger political landscape has had to depend on corruption to get back returns.

That has not changed.

So, when the PM and other leaders assert that corruption has come down drastically, the layperson scratches his or her head and asks "for whom?"

The "Na Khaunga, Na Khaane Dunga" (won't eat and won't let anyone else eat, where eat refers to bribes) slogan gets little traction in such a social milieu.

People cannot relate to that.

Yes, India has benefitted hugely from the sucking of wealth that has been stopped. But the normal public has had little respite. In fact, most say that the corruption has increased.

For example, a taxi driver said "Earlier the minimum fine used to be Rs 500, so we could pay the policeman Rs 200 and get away when he would deliberately haul us on one side. Now, fines have increased to Rs 5000. They ask for Rs 2000 now! The change has benefited the corrupt."

One looks at the whole scenario in India and is baffled. How can one leader eliminate corruption from every level of Indian society?

Short of dictatorship, such a change is impossible.

System of Systems Failure for Modi?

I do not evaluate events.

I evaluate principal actors who orchestrate or participate in events.

That helps me to understand and dig deeper into the events and their ramifications.

Over the years, Modi's career has been defined by a remarkable level of will, grit and fighting spirit. His way of being is almost of an enlightened yogi.

Yet, when one looks at the situation one is at a loss of words.

No one understands the ramifications of power going away for Modi and the BJP brass as much as Modi would.

Witch-hunt is a mild version of what could happen if the infantile and egotist Gandhi family gets the power back.

Rahul Gandhi and the opposition have been working hard to humiliate and bring down the Hindus and the Sanatan Dharma for quite some time now.

Their strategies align with Saul Alinsky's Rules.

• Ridicule is man's most potent weapon: Ridicule is difficult to counter and infuriating to opponents. Use humor and mockery to undermine their authority and credibility.
• Keep the pressure on. Never let up: Constantly challenge your opponents and keep them under pressure. A sustained campaign is more likely to succeed than sporadic actions.
• The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself: The fear of what might happen can be more effective than the actual action. Use threats and the potential for disruption to keep opponents anxious and distracted.

A relentless mocking campaign has been unleashed on the Hindus and Rahul Gandhi is, at least, not letting up.

This is towards a certain build-up. A scenario where targeting of the Hindus is a justifiable act of the state and the anarchic people.

After all, the October 7th attack has been normalized the world over.

When such a narrative war is underway, then the real target is always the chief adversary.

Narendra Modi in this case.

This is where my contention of "System of Systems Failure" comes in.

Narendra Modi does not depend on normal ways of information gathering to make decisions or create his worldview. Per all the reports and anecdotes, he has multiple ways to inform himself.

Yet, he not only missed the gigantic gap between BJP and RSS that the former had orchestrated from the highest level downwards, but he did not even work to get things right even after the elections.

Here is a very perceptive Gayatri Mishra of "The Alternate Media" discussing strange coincidences in the meetings of Mukesh Ambani.

What is indeed underway?

When the Congress Party cadres were going from one household to another promising ₹8500 per month if they voted for Congress, the BJP cadres were missing.

How was this whole thing missed?

How was the lack of any engagement by the local cadres missed?

Something that I cannot put my finger on.

BJP Rift in the Future?

I have maintained that a credible opposition in India should come out of the BJP. The original Jan Sangh stable.

A set of people who are aligned with the Indian national interest.

Power brings many moral depredations along with it where your allies and compatriots start to act differently. That is when someone looks at the abyss the whole bus is driving to and takes a contrarian call.

When asked by a friend in Mumbai where I see BJP headed in the next five years, I said - Towards a Breakup through the middle.

There will be a group within the BJP that would have started wondering if the BJP of today is even aligned with its core constituency anymore.

Rightly or wrongly, there is a feeling that things are amiss.

As per one of the most learned and astute observers I know - Modi is a victim of the decades of abuse hurled against him. He has been working to absolve himself of the tags that were thrust upon him.

Specifically of being "anti-Muslim", which he never was.

To such an extent that he is ok to even sideline the Hindus.

One hopes and believes this not to be completely correct due to the highly evolved being of Modi. But the actions betray the feeling that the wise man who said that may have been correct.

The way things are, they lend themselves to a situation where a group more true to India's national interests and aligned within the core BJP constituency will emerge.

Quite clearly, the future is not without challenges for the BJP, RSS, and Hindus in general.

The time is for unity and coming together to save oneself from the attack by the modern-day marauders, plunderers and colonizers.

Are we ready for that onslaught? Or will our morals and rule books be used against us to decimate our very existence?

That is what needs to be looked at!