In 58 posts with close to 100k words, we shared a lot in 2024! Explore 2024’s biggest geopolitical shifts, cultural battles, and bold insights with Drishtikone’s year in review. See you in 2025! Happy New Year! Be safe!
When you see Russia get into existential war over Ukraine, or Israel bomb Syria or India battle with Pakistan or Bangladesh, it is not because of some whim. It has a historical and geographical context. That is critical to understand for analyzing geopolitics.
Dive into the shadowy world of the Deep State—its hidden structures, powerful networks, and the far-reaching impact on global events and control.
The premise and the mindset apparent in the new Trump team points to an interesting world out there. Things will not be rosy, but they will be very different. Very, very different.
Sometimes we need to keep aside the commonly used molds that have shaped the world around us. In those momentous times, the world is getting ready to cast its old skin.
It is getting ready to take a new turn.
A turn that may not be a known one. But a turn out of the current times.
The coming generations can judge us. As long as we are honest to ourselves and have complete clarity of purpose - favoring actions that benefit the most versus few – we will have future critics learn from our generation.
That, the ability to be a light to the coming generations, will be our only legacy. For, no matter what we do, we will not be able to leave a neat, nice, and predictable world. Such a world is a pretense for tremendous unknown evil that lurks in the shadows.
In some sense, the predictability of the last 70 years, specifically the last 30 is responsible for the stink that has finally seeped out of the well-hidden crevices of human greed and depravation.
Just as most were about the result of this election, that we had predicted would be a landslide - American Hubris is Shaping the Geopolitical Chessboard for the Next Century
Not because we are clairvoyants, but because the indicators, sans any lens, did seem to point to that eventuality.
It is about looking at society's fundamentals and then extrapolating them. As difficult as this may be, the insights can be very rewarding.
So let's start.
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Most commentators looking to make sense have created a caricature of the coming regime.
A caricature.
Six to 18 months from now, the folly of these caricatures will be so apparent that we will look back and wonder how we could even say such things.
Donald Trump was not running for the election this time.
Dejected, humiliated, sidelined, and cheated Americans were.
They found a guy whom the very people who had brought them to that abyss were focused on destroying.
He survived.
Partly through the wealth he had made. Partly through luck.
He became a mascot. A symbol for their own struggle.
That miraculous escape on July 13th this year from a certain death gave hope to the Americans that maybe the tide had changed.
After that, they found their "Man in Charge" within their hearts.
Then he dodged another attempt that could have gotten him.
The odds were far too many against such an eventuality.
In my view, that pushed the Americans who had given up on anything good to happen within this country to look up.
And, these were not the "White Supremacists" or Racists that have often been discussed to villainize Trump.
These were ordinary Americans who had had enough.
That evening Scott Jennings - a Republican commentator - laid it out in the best possible way.
These ordinary Americans devised their ways to fight back.
The discussions started happening in podcasts, private groups, newsletters, and discussion forums. We even started discussing politics with our neighbors and sharing each other's angst.
None of the people I had talked to or interacted with were the often caricatured Trump supporters - "White Supremacists" or "Racists".
They were all genuinely worried about where the country - and more importantly - the world was going towards.
That is what everyone missed.
Therefore, when anyone who starts to look at the next 4 years pushes in those prejudices that have fallen by the wayside in this Trump victory, then I have to just sit back and wonder. At the completely clueless understanding of things.
Not to say that those "White Supremacists" and "Evangelicals" who started the MAGA movement in 2016 have mellowed or changed. They haven't. And they will feel emboldened.
But they aren't the ones who will hold the keys to power in the current administration.
The pragmatists will.
President Trump's picks in the next administration and his pronouncements paint the picture of a radical direction tempered with some pragmatism.
At the moment, these are the main picks of President-elect Donald Trump. A few of the picks - like Marco Rubio and Matt Gaetz - have caused concern to some of those who wanted to "drain the swamp" (like Candace Owens).
This is what Candace Owens is saying.
I can understand what Candace is saying but some of that may be the words of the MAGA loyalists who led the first version of Trump's presidency. They are worried about the Deep State and they should be.
But having folks like Marco Rubio - when you have to go after illegals from down South for deportation - would help with the effort.
Some of the picks that I personally like are:
Tom Homan - the Border Czar: the man who wants to go after the drug cartels and designate them as "terrorist organizations'. Apart from his tough stance on deportations of the illegals.
Former ICE Director Tom Homan, tapped to lead border enforcement in President-elect Donald Trump’s administration, says he will prioritize deporting criminals and national security threats while pushing to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations. “There’s more than one priority,” Homan said Wednesday on NewsNation’s “CUOMO,” revealing that authorities have identified more than 700,000 undocumented immigrants with criminal convictions and final deportation orders who remain in the United States. (Source: "Trump ‘border czar’: Cartels need terrorist label due to death count" / News Nation)
If Drug cartels from Mexico are treated the same way as terrorist organizations, that will change a lot of things.
For one, that is appropriate because Narco-terrorism is the new avatar of the drug cartels. In the Crime-terror continuum, this is where the world has come to.
More importantly, many intelligence agencies in Western and rogue and authoritarian nations like Pakistan, China and Iran are closely intertwined with the Narco-terror businesses.
It includes Islamist jihadi groups and Khalistani groups as well. (Narcoterrorism: Drugs and Khalistan terrorism)
There is another angle that most have not discussed because it is quite obscure. The Myanmar link to Mexican drug cartels.
Desh Kapoor
This link has - as we explored - placed India's sovereignty in jeopardy because the American CIA was hell-bent on securing a base in the area against India.
An attack on Mexican drug cartels and the linked terror organizations will start a dominoes impact that will bring peace to many areas. Including India's North-East states.
Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE): Elon and Vivek are two of the smartest folks in Trump's gang as we speak. Heck, they may be two of the smartest people in public life in the world right now.
Their ability to visualize and execute extremely difficult things is extraordinary.
They both will not be directly involved in the daily administration in all probability but they will be able to change the course of US in many ways.
This is what Vivek shared on X on D.O.G.E. mission.
What do you notice?
This tempers the use of hatchets that Elon Musk is used to at his private company (which is a very effective way).
It won't be easy to do what they want to be done but it will need to be pushed forward.
Some Indian commentators have their take on this. Three guys I have high respect for.
I don't agree with the first two below. These kinds of changes will eventually turn out to be more fundamental than we think.
As far as the financial part of the cryptos is concerned, I agree with Dr. Shah. While most of the close Trump team members do not agree with the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), they do believe that a Digital Dollar backed by a basket of cryptos and commodities will be the way forward.
If that is the way that the digital Dollar goes, it may not be able to save the US Dollar at all.
The financial reset from a global standpoint will not be "brought about" - it will happen. The geo-economic dynamics will cause it.
What we are looking at is a major socio-economic upheaval in the United States, and by extension, in the world.
While the next 10 years will be chaotic in the US, they will set the US up for a transformation that will serve it well for the next 100.
As we discuss major social changes,, we should look at how Trump is advocating for the "American Academy" and free education for the American citizens. This will challenge established Ivy League universities.
This is the only way to address the Woke/Jihadi virus that has inflicted the Ivy Leagues in US and Europe. Please see the context of what President Trump shared.
Desh Kapoor
I maintain that this is the time that if a country like India wants to take a lead on education, it can. By creating plush campuses, bringing in top professors and brains, and setting up a whole new curriculum for the future. And most importantly, to go ahead and establish an online presence that is comprehensive for future students around the world.
Education world in the coming years will witness a complete upheaval.
Just these two changes - DOGE and American Academy - will change the United States so radically that if any other President had done even a fourth of these, he would have been the greatest in history.
The biggest change is in how intelligence will be approached. One of the biggest calamities of the last 8 years of rule was the bastardization of the American intelligence agencies.
Twitter Files established it beyond any shadow of a doubt that there was collusion between the intelligence operatives, the Democratic Party, and Corporations. All three were working together to silence not just the Americans but people from around the world. People who were not aligned with their worldview.
Desh Kapoor
The Intelligence Duo - Michael Waltz and Tulsi Gabbard
Waltz is the National Security Advisor pick and Tulsi Gabbard is the Director of National Intelligence.
Both are veterans. Tulsi is a current Army Reservist.
We are looking at a pragmatic, though revolutionary intelligence leadership team that does not look for wars outside.
In the face of Islamist terror threats to Israel, India, and the US; these two can bring changes that will impact the geopolitics in a major way.
This will also go against investments made by Pakistan, Iran, and above all, China.
This will not just go at the heart of the Islamist/Jihadi terror activities but also its offshoot - the Khalistani terror.
These two will present the best opportunity for the American patriots to hit the reset button on the incessant wars that have been waged by the American intelligence and military agencies and deep state.
That in itself will save money that goes to the American people and not the top few.
Some folks - from the previous regime of warmongers aren't happy at all. John Bolton, for example, wants to continue the same Hillary Clinton propaganda of Tulsi Gabbard being a "Russian asset".
The whole Russia hate idea is a manufactured one. It had to be built up to help wage the Ukraine war just the incubator babies of Iraq War 1 and WMDs of Iraq War 2. It is not surprising that John Bolton was one of the architects and supporters of the Second Iraq War
As Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs (2001–2005), Bolton was a key proponent of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. He has consistently defended the decision, stating that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein was a "resounding success."
PBS News Hour
Despite the mess the Iraq War created, Bolton would do it all over again.
The latest version of the Saddam-Hussain hate circus is the Putin hate circus - for yet another war. And, Tulsi was the favorite of that entire cabal for the blame. Which is what Bolton does rather faithfully.
He does not like Gaetz for what and how he is known in Congress but he hates Tulsi as well because that is how his masters in the Deep State, like Hillary Clinton, have smeared Tulsi.
This clip from "The View" shows the exact problem with the Clinton cabal. Joy Behar, as embarrassing as she is in her slapstick supposedly comic style (which is rather cringy) shows exactly what inflicts this whole war-favoring gang. Bolton may be a serious-looking version of Joy, but his arguments around the failed Iraq War and not very far from Behar's.
Tulsi, however, defends herself against Behar's disconcerting performance rather well.
Her statement later showed where her heart and mind are in the role of intelligence within the United States.
Something that should give us some hope that things can look up finally.
With that, let us go into how the coming administration will impact the world.
The European Union is a den of Woke and liberal warmongers now. A combination that would have been unthinkable a few decades back but true now.
This has led to a situation in Europe where the societies in most countries are now ripe for internal unrest and division.
The worst thing is that the European Union is exacerbating that eventuality. Any country that stems the tide is sanctioned and targeted. Sovereignty is sacrificed at the altar of wokeism.
We had discussed this in our previous newsletter.
Desh Kapoor
Currently, in Europe, very few countries can claim to be military powers.
Only two - UK and France - have nukes and probably have the best military prowess in that continent. Italy, Spain, and Germany have been building their militaries recently though.
In that sense, the continent is spawning its own Military Industrial Complex.
Desh Kapoor
Under President Trump, NATO may not remain as strong. In that scenario, European countries will be forced to push for their own militaries and foreign policy choices. Something that NATO wanted to obviate.
For future partnerships, the natural choice for them maybe Russia in terms of long-term relations outside of the US - due to energy needs - but one can see China usurping the space left by the US as the over-arching umbrella.
By the time Trump's presidency ends in 2028, we will see a situation where Europe may have created a major conflict situation due to its internal conflicts and choices of partners.
The continent may again be divided between US, Russia and China. On its own, it will have no future. Nor any power.
The next 4 years will provide India with once in a millennium opportunity to effect changes and bring about a transformation that will keep reaping benefits for the next 200 years.
Not because the Trump administration will bestow some out-of-the-way benefits on India. But because it will be less inclined to unleash subversion that the US intelligence has hitherto been involved in.
That in itself will be enough to enable the Indian government to create the atmosphere and bring about the transformation needed without the leadership having to look over its shoulder.
This will also mean that the US will finally have a solid partner in Asia - which it can depend on. As long as the US is not tempted to dictate the politics and social situation in India, India will be very close to the US.
The US currently lacks credibility and trust within the larger global community, if its might is not brought to bear for breaking down the US critics which is often the case. The overwhelming might of America accentuates the frustration and the need to find alternative models of engagement.
That has led to a swagger and disdain in the US establishment for everyone else. That kind of engagement policy is suicidal in a multipolar world. The rest find ways and form alliances to counter the egregious use of power.
That is where de-dollarization drive stems from.
It will take a lot. A lot of learning in diplomatic skills and learning the power of engagement as opposed to bring out the gun and shooting the opponents down as a diplomatic strategy.
It will be a very different world.
Here are some of my predictions:
Islamist Terror: In partnership with Arabic countries like UAE and Saudi Arabia, the US, Israel, and India would have found a way to strike at the root of terror. Saudi Arabia would have moved on the road to modernization and intervening in the Islamic world in ways never seen before. In fact, Islam itself will take a very different shape in the rest of the world under the leadership of the Saudi government.
In terms of Israel's situation, I would stick my neck out to say that the "two-state solution" will be a thing of the past. No one will discuss that anymore. The scenario, the landscape, and the players would have changed. Also, the social structure of Lebanon would have changed given the changes that have led it to its current state. A good primer on Hezbollah's role in Lebanon can be accessed here.
Oliver Holmes
With Lebanon changing, changes in Iran will be brought in from the inside out.
This thread from an Iranian shares the actions that have created the Iran of today and why Netanyahu's brilliant strategy of "targeting the leadership but engaging the average Iranian" could be short-circuited by the Western intelligence agencies. Something that will change under the new Trump regime. Please go through the thread.
Like millions of Iranians I listened to Prime minister @netanyahu 2nd address to the Iranian people. While many Iranians appreciate the encouraging words and the clear distinction between Khamenei’s Regime and the Iranian people, I think there are still major points that are lost… https://t.co/hEzcgO1mut
— Gazelle غزاله شارمهد (@GazelleSharmahd) November 13, 2024
The Middle East of 2028 will be vastly different from the one we see today.
China and Europe: The "traditional" Islamists who want to continue with their ways - against the combination of Arab States like UAE and Saudis - will align with China and Qatar. China will work to engage with the Global South, but I see the Global South being closer to India and therefore with the US coalition.
China, on the other hand, will align with the current highly leftist countries like Germany. These countries will see major upheavals in local politics. The rise of the far right may eventually be not just rocky but explosive in many ways. That (chaos) is something that will push Europe to China. More importantly also because Europe-China trade is roughly 1/3rd of the world trade already.
In contrast, the U.S. goods and services trade with China totaled an estimated $758.4 billion in 2022.
So if China-US decoupling will be a push from the Trump administration, then China will seek other geographies. Europe will be a major one.
China's bonhomie with India will be short-lived.
Taiwan's issue will bring China to counter the changes that the new American actions will bring.
India: The promise that the US-India relationship always presented may finally be fulfilled. Every American establishment since 1947 and even before has chosen a disastrous strategy with respect to the Indian subcontinent. Probably because it had an issue with Russia.
The fundamental cultural-religious issue that remains between the Anglo-Saxon religious mind vs the Orthodox Christian society of Russia may remain in the backrooms, the new world will see a different sense of engagement.
It is the new imperative. Russia will come closer to the US.
In such a scenario, there will be a leadership change in India with a new leader - much stronger in terms of internal actions will take charge. The external affairs will remain in the hands of the skillful Dr. Jaishankar and with that team, the redefinition of India will start as well.
Even if the Indian leadership may not act on its own (which will be difficult in the coming years), the redefinition of the Islamist world by the new players will necessitate it.
By the beginning of 2030, the US and India will be the two strongest powers on either side of the globe partnering with each other.
And in that world, we will see the war clouds hanging over our heads.
America's Justice Department and SEC have targeted India's Adani Group with a bribery case. Using Nationalistic sentiment doesn't help. Yes, law has been weaponized and India's sovereignty compromised but not how they think. A definitive guide to understanding the case.
There was a clear warning from Putin on provision of long range missiles that could hit deep into Russia to Ukraine. It would be consider as a direct attack by NATO on Russia. Biden has done just that!
The US, and indeed the world has seen a watershed event of Donald Trump's victory. It will change the US direction and may have pushed a World War by at least 3-4 years.
Influx of Illegals and attacks on the first amendment along with rampant censorship suggest that not only is demography being altered at scale but the fundamental rights are being curbed rapidly in the US. There wouldn't be democracy left to save!
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